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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (121216)	12/7/2000 5:59:16 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Ted, the guys, and gals on the AMAT thread have charts on all the stock movements that would put Standard and Poors to shame. OTOH, do they have them for semis vs. for equips? I don't know. I don't have a feel myself for prices vs. cycle points. With BRCD, I bought in around 180 and put a stop loss in place to protect myself. The company had a blowout last quarter and gave great guidance two weeks ago. It was trading at $267...I figure I got 'a bargain' at $180. The stock splits at the end of the month...total number of shares then will be 220 million, a pittance compared to the Dells, Intels and CSCOs of the world....so if BRCD is the next MSFT or CSCO, then I am buying near 'the bottom' so to speak. Can you appreciate my rationalization? Does my weird logic make sense? <g> Not weird at all. BRCD may just be on its way to gorilla-dom. Now that you put it that way, maybe I'll try to get some of it. They are kicking butt in the FO SAN switch area. Emulex and McData are the other two that are strong. I'll get some MCDT because of my EMC holding, looks like. Not much but maybe enough to follow it more closely, maybe buy more. Good luck with Intel in your 401K. Tony

To: tejek who wrote (121216)	12/7/2000 6:33:54 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

tejek, these charts may help re semi equipment and semi chip cycle Message 14872591 Gottfried

To: tejek who wrote (121216)	12/7/2000 8:58:21 PM
From: 2maclean	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

Tejek, First, let me say that (although it may seem obvious), that there is no longer a monolith called "the semiconductor industry" (save that there are a bunch of companies that sell very small slivers of silicon for much more than the cost of materials). Two-three decades ago, there was an industry dominated by "broad line semiconductor companies" that all sold the same thing (or a sub-set of the same thing) to the same customers. What affected, say, TXN, affected MOT, and NSM, and even little INTC. Now, companies are far more specialized, and what affects INTC may or may not have bearing on TXN. That said, there are always two issues: inventories, and end-demand. In general, end-demand (broadly defined), has always grown, but at quite variable rates. In the long, flat period of 1989-1991, when the industry kept lead times under control, end demand slumped, and semiconductor sales flattened- but no worse than that. That was a "River Platte" recession. By contrast, in 1973-1975, and 1983-1985, when lead times spiraled out of control, and consequently semiconductor customers built inventories, demand collapsed- but then, rebounded, as customers had been buying less than they were using. The run-up in lead times late last year and earlier this worried me. OTOH, I had felt the overshoot would last longer. My GUESS is that this downturn will be brief- maybe over by early next year- but not a lot of fun. A lot will depend on how bad end-demand really is. Stuart