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To: WTSherman who wrote (121228)12/7/2000 7:09:21 PM
From: Saturn V  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
Ref < PC maturation Talk..... >

The PC has died many a thousand deaths...

The NetPC, the Net appliance, Web Appliance... the ever present argument " the old PC is good enough ".

The PC platform has such enormous momentum, and enormous economies of scale, that no other hardware platform can replace it for at least a decade.

The "good enough" problem is perennial. But it always gets solved because inevitably new software appears which forces you to replace your PC. Even if you do not buy new software, the new software appears insiduously in the form of newer virus checkers which bring your old PC to a grinding halt. Or you receive a new Word or Excel document, which your old Office will not read. So you are forced to buy the latest Office, and presto your old computer is slower than molasses.

Lately the CPU speed has gone from 300MHz to 1500MHz in 3 years, a lot faster than historical rates. So perhaps the software has been slow to catch up with hardware.

Corporate upgrades get tied to major Microsoft Operating Systems. Corporate acceptance of Windows 3.1 set fire to the sales of the "overpowered 486", Multimedia and Windows 95 ignited Pentium Sales, Windows 98 hastened the progression of Pentium II. Corporate acceptance of Windows 2000 may spark another cycle of upgrades.

And PC penetration outside USA is much lower than here, leaving a big new virgin market.

So the issues you present are old hat. However we appear to entering a disappointing Christmas which appears to be more than a PC issue, and appears to be the long awaited economic slowdown.

The PC will be back with a bang ! I cannot predict exactly when !