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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: herringbone_100 who wrote (63990)12/8/2000 10:29:40 PM
From: UnBelievable  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
I Agree That The Vice President Casting The Tie Breaker For Himself is Ugly

But the constitution sets out the procedure. I guess it becomes a crisis when someone doesn't want to follow the rules.

No judgement implied about either candidate.



To: herringbone_100 who wrote (63990)12/8/2000 11:56:45 PM
From: Sweet Ol  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
"what happens next? constitutional crisis. only way this looks to be avoided is if us SC overturns fla. SC. which may not happen as they are very wary of their role in essentially deciding an election. the fla. SC has no such scruples."

Not really. If the Congress can't decide, then it goes back to the Governor of Florida to decide. Guess whose brother is the Governor of Florida!

John



To: herringbone_100 who wrote (63990)12/9/2000 12:13:36 AM
From: KymarFye  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
There's no true Constitutional crisis (as in a situation that CANNOT be lawfully decided) as yet, though there is some chance of a worsening political crisis.

"*no matter the outcome of the 'undercounts', fla. legislature will appoint own electors for bush,regardless."

FL legistlature may find it more difficult to act than it looks right now if the counts go forward, if numbers start coming out in Gore's favor, if US Supreme Court fails to intervene, and public opinion shifts. It is also not entirely clear that the Florida legislature's prospective action (overriding new slate of post-contest/hand count electors) is legally sound.

"*2 sets of electors, gov. of fla. gets to choose- chooses bush. fla. supreme court can jail him for contempt."

It doesn't go to Governor of FL until AFTER the US Congress has deadlocked (i.e., with Gore, presumably, voting for himself but House avoiding). It's at that point that, theoretically, the Supreme Court of FL might be able to order the Governor to certify what it has adjudged to be the valid slate. If it turns out that the FL SC can do that (i.e., has power over Jeb Bush), and by this time it's settled in countrywide that Gore was the "real" winner, then at that point the electors could be named for Gore.

Almost any of the steps involved (esp. votes in Congress, but others as well), can be affected by public opinion. Whatever the precise mechanism, this thing will be decided when one or the other generates the preponderance of political will and opinion on his side (the lack of which has sort of been the problem all along). Bush seemed to have had it going into today, but if the counting goes forward under rules that no one but obviously partisan Republicans considers prima facie unfair, then the "facts on the ground" will shift in Gore's favor, making it increasingly difficult for the Rs to resort to advantages in FL and Congress in an attempt to override the vote (as counted). At that point the pressure on Bush to concede may very well intensify. He has to put up a struggle - his followers will demand it, even more than Gore's followers have demanded it of Gore - but sooner or later the tide may shift powerfully against him.

In any event, it doesn't look right now that Bush is the overwhelming favorite, and Gore suddenly has the momentum again. There's still a fair chance that it'll be pretty well settled within a week or so.