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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (45881)	12/10/2000 8:25:38 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 436258

from toronto star today : (rah rah KINROSS) A cautionary tale for bottom-feeders The 1990 Gulf War bear market was followed by a powerful advance in most world stock markets that ended with the March to April, 2000, technology spike. It was during that advance that many investors adopted a buy-and-hold strategy toward equity investing. That 10-year advance also had several nasty corrections and investors with new money began to adopte a buy-on-dip strategy to complement the buy-and-hold strategy. The October, 1998, Asian currency crisis was to be the ultimate test of these two new investment rules. Once again the investors who stepped in and scooped up ``bargains'' during the October, 1998, low were rewarded with higher prices within a few months. This year we had a new strategy to deal with. We could sell in May and then buy during the following October lows and then repeat the process in the following year. This new discovery was recently published in several financial dailies. This year the market responded to these new rules by handing the buy-in-October crowd a rare December low just to remind investors that no strategy is reliable when it is obvious to the majority. Note that my memo is addressed to investors and not traders. That is because of another rule. In a bull market, be an investor and in a bear market, be a trader. You see, bull markets provide investment opportunities and bear markets provide trading opportunities. A trader would, therefore, recognize the recent summer rally as an opportunity to trade a bear market rally in Research In Motion Ltd. from $60 to $120. An investor may err in believing that the summer offered an opportunity for a new long-term investment in the stock. Investors may also err in believing the sudden collapse of a high-profile stock to be a new investment opportunity. The sudden drops in Canadian Tire Corp., Mitel Corp., ATI Technologies Inc., Yahoo Inc. and lesser lights such as Microforum Inc. and Bid.com International Inc. have frustrated investors and delighted traders. Bottom-fishing is another problem in long bear markets. Some investors will move away from ``expensive'' stocks and seek out ``cheap'' stocks. This can be frustrating because in bear markets expensive stocks will get less expensive but cheap stocks will get even cheaper. You just can't win in a bear. This week, I illustrate the weekly charts of two cheap stocks listed on the TSE. Kinross Gold Corp. has, in five years, declined from over $12 to a recent low of less than $1. Moore Corp. has over the same time period declined from over $30 to a recent low of about $4. Both stocks are, therefore, cheap when compared to their recent price levels but are they bottom-fishing opportunities? Both stocks have disappointed before as they rallied briefly only to fall again to make new lows. Technically both stocks are similar in that they are in long downtrends with both recently rebounding from recent new lows. That is where the similarity ends because Kinross is a cyclical metal stock and Moore is a multinational industrial stock. The miner Kinross will more likely behave like its other mining peers and the complicated corporate structure of Moore Corp. offers no such clues. Before considering Kinross to be a rebound candidate, we need to look at other gold stocks for confirmation of emerging strength in the sector. The recent strength of Barrick Gold Corp. and Franco Nevada Mining Corp. Ltd is a good omen for Kinross. Don't forget that a nervous U.S. dollar is a positive for gold prices. I think Moore can wait for me while I grab a pop in the gold stocks.

To: Lucretius who wrote (45881)	12/10/2000 9:47:23 AM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 436258

The problem now in clowndom is that everybody assumes that AG is Santa. A few rate cuts will not do jack sh*t for tech capex, much less PC, handset demand. They are cycling down, and would have regardless of the fed actions. Everytime I hear "Greenspan put" I see millions of clowns deploying the last of their cash b/c they've surrendered to the lowest common piece of WS BS. Faith in AG goes back pretty far into money managers beliefs, so we might get a chance at BK after this rally - the one that takes the DOW with it. In truth I'm not looking forward to it all, but how I feel about it is irrelevant.