Gustaf, you are aggressive. Your strategy is for the skilled, and experienced. Thanks for sharing it.
The near term set, of key variables, you see setting up in your favor, are definitely realistic; election coming to a conclusion, and Fed. starting to release its choke hold on the economy.
Less experienced people must stay on top of how the mood and focus of the market changes, and that on certain days, it will focus on the weakness in the economy, and slowing of growth in the 20 century technology companys that have fallen behind, the 21 century technology co.s; in earnings and revenue growth.
More than likely on the doom and gloom days of a slowing economy, even the optical networking end, of the 21 century co.s, that has not been shown to have slowed in growth, will still be under attack, in those areas of remaining excessive valuation. However the longs that have waited for low priced entry points and have a longer term investment time horizon, will not be effected, the way a poorly positioned short term player will.
I am trying to carry my initial long Avanex position, for the duration of Avanex's run, which could be for a number of years. One of the reasons I am interested in Avanex is that of all the existing broadband networking plays, optical or other, Avanex has the game plan, Vision, patents and gear most suited to not being made obsolete, tomorrow. Their approach has minimized the need for expensive switches, that become obsolete every time some IPO comes out with a new switch.
Friday I didn't post in the early morning, as I had to get my chores done early, so I could trade the premaket and open. Unfortuneately I never made a trade as I was thrown off buy I large reversed premaket split between bid and ask on Fidelity. 75 was the bid 71 3/8 the ask, while Island showed a last trade of 76.
When the stock opened around 77, I just stood, back and basically went on to other things. Going forward, as conditions allow, I will make my trades in a sepperate account, from my long term hold, shares.
Ciena's positive quarter reaffirmed that orders for this critical optical sector are not slowing down, just as many thought. This supports the view that the growth story for the 21 century high tech infrastucture build out, will remain robust, and viable while other, out of sync, 20 century technology co.s go through a bear market, as they have to carry their less relevant 20 century technology, while they change their focus and products to compete for the business that is being built around this 21 century optical internet platform.
When you talk about co.s for the 21 century, that are geared to the new broadband network platform, you are talking about the hot, high growth NAS co.s.
I have been hoping since last spring that this market would broaden out. The fact that valuation in the high growth tech stocks,have delfated, is healthy and stabilizing. However I still think that good investment choices, in the 21 century high tech sctor, will make out, especially if they are longer term.
For years before Qualcom took off I wanted to buy 1000 shares into my long term account. The proffesional that managed that account it hadn't even heard off Qualcom at that time, and was reluctant to buy something he didn't follow. I could have bought it sepperately but I wanted this to be a joint effort. In the end I took the easy way out and said I would buy it when it started to move. Four years down the road, it finally moved, it went from 25 to 70. I was busy at the time and missed the move. I also had fallen out of touch with the story, and didn't repersue it. After that first move the next time I took notice it was over a 100, then it was 200, then 400, and finally 750. Everytime I just shook my head, and said oh well nice for someone thats in it but it won't go higher.
This time around I interrupted the round table meeting of the principles of this very old money management firm and more aggressively piched the significance of the 21 century high tech build out theme. To their credit they were familar with it, but once again they didn't know about the co., that I was excited about. Neddless to say I do have shares of Avanex in this long term account.
My interest in Qualcom years ago was for the realistic chance that CDMA would become the global standard for wirelss. I believe Gilder made the connection between Avanex and Qualcom, interms of technology's that had staying power and would define the future direction of the technology in their respective industry.
I must say inspite of the current contravercy about Gilder, his thoughts and mine on Qualcom were on the same wave lenght, all though arrived at independently.
Actually I wouldn't doubt if I was aware of Qualcom before he was. I had invested in some non public wireless start ups, back before the Clinton Administration closed that window to the small investors, by freezing the 40,000 applications for licences, on the frequency that Nextel uses.
The point is when I read Gilders perspective on Qualcom and Avanex, it struck an intuive cord, like I hade been here before, and that he was saying things I already knew and had arrived at through my own efforts else where.
I will continue to flesh out the technical story going forward, but I am not going to violate my intuition this time and leave a possible 725,000 on the table, because a proffesional money manager isn't up to speed or some on these boards wants to blame there loose like we all do on someone else, I.E. Gilder, because someone who is short wants to narrow down the whole Avanex story to only the negatives, that they can find. |
