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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (22212)	12/11/2000 7:27:59 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Niceguy, "repeat after me" If Intel missess ..... ITS BAD NEWS. IF AMD missess ....... ITS BAD NEWS. IF GTW,DELL etc miss .. ITS BAD NEWS. AMD SLASHING prices while units are stagnant is BAD NEWS. REMEMBER that some folks predicted prolems on selling durons and k6's 2-3 months ago. Sometimes people learn from their mistakes and adapt to the environment..... THIS IS A GOOD THING. regards, Kash

To: niceguy767 who wrote (22212)	12/11/2000 8:00:22 PM
From: peter_luc	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Niceguy, I believe that there are several reasons for the current PC weakness, like the lack of really demanding software, focus shift to graphic cards, game consoles, high oil prices, maybe also the election. But there may be another reason, too: Current processors and computers will very soon be old technology. There was a similar situation right before Intel launched the Pentium MMX processor in January. During the preceding Christmas buying season, sales of the original Pentium dropped sharply. Why? Because nobody wanted to buy into old technology. Now what is our situation? Pentium III and Celeron are totally outdated. And this fact is fairly obvious to anyone: Intel just began to sell the much hyped Pentium 4, which has that fancy net burst technology and is two times as fast (MHz wise). It is still far too expensive for most, but who wants to have the old generation technology? Concerning AMD: All computer magazines keep praising the DDR chipsets. Would YOU buy a new PC with SDRAM today? I certainly would not. And quite a lot of people might already have heard about AMD's "next big thing" (Anand). Even if AMD 760 DDR motherboards and 266 MHz Athlons were readily available right now I wouldn't buy one. I would wait for the Palomino. So, in my eyes, not only MHz sells, but NEW, EXITING TECHNOLOGY sells, too. I think that the reason for the very strong sales in H1 of this year was just that: Exiting new technology: Pentium III Coppermine and AMD Athlon, later on the Thunderbird. Just as exiting new technology fuels sales, old and boring, last generation technology does just the opposite: It drags the market. And that is just our situation. The other side of the coin: As soon as on the one hand the Pentium 4 gets cheaper and readily available and on the other hand AMD throws in the Palomino, coupled with PC 2100 DDR memory, there will be a new wave of buying interest. Peter

To: niceguy767 who wrote (22212)	12/12/2000 4:42:15 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

AMD showed weakness on strong results, now showing strength on relatively strong Q4, but not as strong as some would have hoped, results!!! That AMD will post $0.50 in this abysmal setting is testimony to the new AMD's fundamental strength... If AMD was the AMD of old (pre Athlon and Dresden) it would be losing money (if not out of the CPU business completely). In that sense the fact that it is making $.50 a share is a sign of strength. But being down sequentially in what is normally the best quarter is as much a sign of weakness as being up in (the normally slow) Q1 over last years Q4 was a sign of strength. (perhaps not quite as much because Q1 wasn't just an up quarter but a blowout Q). The weakness is not company specific but if your company is down because the whole industry is down it's still down. I think this slow down in CPU demand will not last forever. I also think AMD will gain market share and I think AMDs P/E and PEG (in YoY not sequential) is so low that AMD is a very good value play. But while I see the potential for very good return from AMD I don't see it soaring to the moon any time soon. Tim