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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (22251)	12/11/2000 8:44:22 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 275872

Pravin re:"40M units" I dont think so. There is talk of 8-12 weeks of inventory in the pipe right now. There is huge price slashing going on right now. Q1 volumes are usually low anyway. But i can see Q1 as a real disaster. In fact more so for Intel than AMD as celeron demand seems to have really fallen off a log. If AMD sells 6M units or so in Q1. Its tough to see 34M units from AMD in Q2-Q4 2001. As u know AMD has slipped mustang/palomino so any laptop penetration wont even start till mid Q1 2001. And any server penetration will start in 2H 2001. I don't think this mess will be fixed in 1 months. More likely 2-3 months (if lucky). regards, Kash

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (22251)	12/12/2000 4:19:55 PM
From: fyodor_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin: With SiS, ALi, Nvidia, and Micron chipsets coming in Q1 and Q2 to support Athlon and Duron, I suspect that AMD will be able to sell 40 million processors in 2001. ASP will be helped by mobile and server, but I would not count on ASP rising above $100. When I first heard that Clawhammer would be significantly below 100mm2 I was a bit dismayed. Not that I mind the small size for a Duron-type processor, but Clawhammer is going to represent AMD's highend as well. Clearly, all other things being equal, smaller die size is better, but I would hate to think performance has been sacrificed. Today, however, it doesn't seem that bad to have an extremely cheap (to produce) high-end chip. It looks like the time of $500+ consumer CPUs is over. -fyo