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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (64156)	12/12/2000 12:01:03 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. December 11, 2000. Ord Oracle. marketweb.com The March S&P gapped up over 30 points on today's open. These huge gaps are usually filled quickly. To fill the gap on the March S&P's a pull back to the 1350 area would be required. Twice last week the uptick reading approached or exceeded 900. Uptick tick readings exceeding 600 appear near short-term highs. No bearish candlestick pattern has formed yet to signal a short term high. The "Bridge Market Barometer" came in last week at 77% bulls on the December 7 reading. Readings above 75% bulls appear near short-term highs. There is a trend line connecting the highs going back to the September 1 high that comes in near the 1415 area on the March S&P's and should provide resistance. Today's high was 1412.50. Also, on November 30 the S&P broken below the previous low of October 18 low on increased volume. This condition implies the November 30 low will be tested again. Therefore, there is evidence that the S&P's are still in a trading range. We will be looking for a trigger for a put position on the market for a short-term trade to at least the 1350 area if not all the way down to a test of the November 30 low. Since this will be a short term trade, will not attempt to short the S&P's but buy the puts instead. The Nasdaq 100 produced three gaps up. The first gap formed between December 4 to the 5. The second gap formed between December 7 to the 8 and the third gap formed between December 8 to today's open. According to Candlestick rules, after three gaps the market is extended and is expected to reverse and pull back to the first gap. In this particular case the first gap formed near the 2550 area. On November 30, the Nasdaq 100 broke below the previous low of October 18 on increased volume. This condition implies the November 30 low will be tested again (2426 level). Therefore, a basing process may have started with the Nasdaq 100, but it appears a least one more time down may be in order to complete the basing. There may be a QQQ put option trade lining up for the short term. No signal for that trade yet. We are bullish on gold. Wave "1" up was the October 1999 rally. Wave "2" down ended at the November 2000 lows. We think wave "3" has started. We are holding our long position in the XAU.

To: Les H who wrote (64156)	12/13/2000 8:13:25 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Market/Sector Breadth Journal: December 12, 2000 (3813 stocks) percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Dec 12 66 54 44 39 537 - 327 278 - 257 75 - 108 Dec 11 69 57 47 41 1167 - 277 707 - 214 198 - 77 Dec 8 64 50 43 40 1033 - 225 643 - 177 216 - 84 Dec 7 48 39 36 37 418 - 552 263 - 482 106 - 244 Dec 6 50 38 37 37 462 - 515 265 - 443 102 - 207 Dec 5 57 42 39 38 933 - 292 527 - 242 171 - 116 Dec 4 36 30 32 35 424 - 802 299 - 685 88 - 345 Dec 1 36 30 33 35 407 - 529 246 - 455 76 - 208 Nov 30 26 25 30 32 303 - 1559 214 - 1356 92 - 585 Nov 29 31 28 33 35 356 - 1218 233 - 1052 98 - 455 Nov 28 30 28 33 36 268 - 1143 181 - 966 70 - 411 Nov 27 40 34 36 38 459 - 567 273 - 449 90 - 192 Nov 24 38 34 35 37 386 - 351 242 - 262 66 - 106 Nov 17 37 43 39 40 399 - 766 289 - 501 92 - 192 Nov 10 29 45 36 40 192 - 1081 150 - 585 47 - 222 Nov 3 71 68 46 45 845 - 200 599 - 134 113 - 46 Oct 31 68 59 41 43 1231 - 186 732 - 143 151 - 60 Nasdaq 100 percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Dec 12 2863 82 69 36 31 9 - 3 4 - 3 0 - 1 Dec 11 2972 82 71 46 37 51 - 5 24 - 5 0 - 1 Dec 8 2895 75 61 38 33 39 - 2 19 - 1 2 - 0 Dec 7 2719 55 40 25 26 11 - 18 5 - 16 1 - 9 Dec 6 2743 57 36 26 27 11 - 12 6 - 10 2 - 6 Dec 5 2852 72 50 36 28 37 - 5 15 - 4 2 - 2 Dec 4 2554 27 17 17 21 11 - 15 9 - 15 1 - 9 Dec 1 2549 25 17 16 18 7 - 17 4 - 16 0 - 4 Nov 30 2506 16 12 15 15 3 - 46 3 - 38 0 - 12 Nov 29 2602 25 20 21 18 8 - 36 4 - 30 2 - 8 Nov 28 2621 15 15 20 21 2 - 46 1 - 41 1 - 13 Nov 27 2769 38 26 30 25 9 - 17 3 - 13 1 - 2 Nov 24 2830 49 32 31 22 9 - 1 3 - 1 1 - 1 Nov 17 2934 34 31 30 26 7 - 20 5 - 16 2 - 2 Nov 10 2890 13 31 24 25 2 - 45 1 - 25 0 - 7 Nov 3 3321 76 68 42 38 17 - 3 12 - 2 4 - 1 Oct 31 3282 68 60 39 38 34 - 2 25 - 1 3 - 0 S & P 100 percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Dec 12 728 59 67 58 57 15 - 4 7 - 2 2 - 0 Dec 11 733 57 58 60 58 21 - 10 16 - 5 1 - 0 Dec 8 727 57 55 58 56 19 - 6 15 - 2 4 - 0 Dec 7 710 51 52 54 55 6 - 15 5 - 10 4 - 4 Dec 6 717 54 52 58 57 14 - 19 8 - 12 3 - 6 Dec 5 732 73 70 63 60 37 - 8 20 - 6 3 - 2 Dec 4 701 55 47 56 55 26 - 12 20 - 8 4 - 6 Dec 1 695 48 46 56 50 12 - 15 5 - 14 1 - 3 Nov 30 697 44 39 53 46 13 - 31 9 - 25 5 - 7 Nov 29 712 52 52 57 52 23 - 18 15 - 13 7 - 2 Nov 28 708 43 35 56 52 12 - 22 11 - 13 5 - 4 Nov 27 714 40 38 54 52 16 - 14 11 - 7 2 - 3 Nov 24 711 39 42 53 51 8 - 5 7 - 3 4 - 0 Nov 17 725 43 52 58 51 13 - 15 12 - 8 3 - 3 Nov 10 719 37 64 55 55 12 - 24 9 - 10 2 - 3 Nov 3 751 74 72 59 58 18 - 2 13 - 1 2 - 0 Oct 31 750 82 68 57 57 46 - 1 27 - 0 6 - 0 AIQ market log (buy - sell ratios of signals) Unconfirmed Signals (US) market DJIA SPX OTC Universe OEX NDX ---------------------- ------ ----- ----- -------- -------- -------- Dec 12 10.768 1371 2931 26 - 74 30 - 70 0 -100 Dec 11 10,725 1380 3015 24 - 76 33 - 67 0 -100 Dec 8 10,712 1369 2917 29 - 71 25 - 75 14 - 86 Dec 7 10,617 1343 2752 48 - 52 57 - 43 33 - 67 Dec 6 10,664 1351 2796 43 - 57 50 - 50 33 - 67 Dec 5 10,898 1376 2889 50 - 50 43 - 57 40 - 60 Dec 4 10,560 1324 2615 76 - 24 67 - 33 100 - 0 Dec 1 10,373 1315 2645 79 - 21 56 - 44 100 - 0 Nov 30 10,414 1314 2597 84 - 16 60 - 40 100 - 0 Nov 29 10,629 1341 2706 82 - 18 43 - 57 100 - 0 Nov 28 10,507 1336 2734 80 - 20 50 - 50 100 - 0 Nov 27 10,546 1348 2880 77 - 23 64 - 36 100 - 0 Nov 24 10,470 1341 2904 84 - 16 64 - 36 100 - 0 Nov 17 10,629 1367 3027 70 - 30 44 - 56 62 - 38 Nov 10 10,603 1365 3028 54 - 46 14 - 86 67 - 33 Nov 3 10,818 1426 3451 11 - 89 0 -100 0 -100 Oct 31 10,971 1429 3369 22 - 78 0 -100 8 - 92 December 12 Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US) Universe 66 - 34 26 - 74 OEX 30 - 70 30 - 70 NDX 80 - 20 0 -100