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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (22338)	12/12/2000 6:50:03 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

twfowler: "I'm not rushing to sell right now (I all ready sold a lot awile back with a margin call), but what eps level per quarter would cause you to see a problem?" Well, only a year ago, AMD had a string of significant successive quarterly losses and rarely traded below $17.00...That's why I previously suggested that at $17, for that matter below $20, every imaginable negative has to be factored in like a Q4 eps of less than $0.10, Q4 revenues below $1 billion, Q4 shipments below 6 million and little prospect of any degree of success in H1 product evolution to DDR, mobile, server and palomino offerings...At $17, a negative eps might be a little disconcerting, $0.50 is not at all disconcerting for me particularly given the general PC weakness that has materialized in Q4 and given the bright prospects for AMD product evolution on all fronts in Y2001... Everything is relative...AMD's market price is relative to SOXX, Nas and to some extent the DJI as we have seen...AMD's price is also relative to its competitors...The primary issue for me at the moment is how is AMD's performance relative to its competitors...Comparison of Q4 results might yet prove telling in this regard despite the seeming general consensus that AMD's performance relative to competitors has remained unchanged through Q4...I'm not convinced of that until I see the financials on Jan. 16...My perception is that AMD's performance, in a relative sense, has been stronger than its competitors...Only the Q4 financials can shed any factual light on such a perception... AMD, in a relative sense, is much, much stronger vis a vis its competitors now than one year ago...All indicators on my radar screen suggest that again in Y2001, AMD will make significant leaps in relative performance vis a vis its competitors...If true, and if complemented by a strengthening in global PC demand, AMD should provide a very decent Y2001 eps and Y2001 returns in capital appreciation well above the norm...