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To: yard_man who wrote (47076)	12/13/2000 1:10:03 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Tip, I don't disagree with Bob and Magner. Where I respectfully part company with them is that I do not accept any outcome as inevitable. I do not like to entertain analogies unless the correspondence is isomorphic. There are highly likely outcomes, but unless you less than 100% net short then you must not be entirely convinced of the outcome. I'm surprised that, given that most of us here are "quants" - engineers, math geeks, etc. - that we are speaking in global, qualitative terms instead of local, quantitative terms. So here is my forecast for the economy, right or wrong: Chain-Weighted GDP (full qtr) Unemployment (eoq) 4Q00 0.7% 4.1% 1Q01 -0.2% 4.6% 2Q01 -0.9% 4.9% 3Q01 -0.6% 5.0% 4Q01 0.5% 4.9% I've been very wrong before. But I'd at least prefer to speak in specific terms instead of generalities. What is your forecast?