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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Gallaspy who wrote (40796)	12/14/2000 12:18:27 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Interesting. It seems my "formula sells" where I just take profits when the momentum seemed to slow worked better than following the analysts. Maybe I got lucky, but this is what I am on the record for with AMAT in a portfolio manage and I write about: Bought $20,000: 1580 Shares @ $12.66 on 9/30/98 Sold: 790 Shares @ $27.50 on 1/13/99; Sold: 190 Shares @ $55-11/17/99; Sold: 100 Shares @$62.50 - 1/11/00 Sold: 50 Shares @$97.50-3/10/00 Bought 100 Shares @ $81.00 on 5/11/00 Sold: 100 Shares@ $89 5/18/00 Nothing fancy, just sold when targets were hit. With my personal money where i pay taxes, I just sold SOME at $68+ on the way up. I am CONVINCED that the analysts don't have any more of a clue than we do... so you accumulate when low and pull some off when high and try to beat a buy and hold portfolio. Simple rule is never pay top dollar and wait for a pullback of over 50% from the peak to make a first buy. I still think we can keep looking but I KNOW some in the industry knew the demand was going to fall off long before we knew. One told me.. that is how I learned. He said they used to have trouble getting capacity on fabs due to cell phone volume and that started to dry up... Maybe the next time we are all talking about reasons for the cycle to go forever, we should be looking for the first sign of fab capacity freeing up? When that happens, take some off. The flip side of that is to start to buy when everyone is bearish and you see some positives or when bad news doesn't drive the stocks lower. I think we might be seeing that now, but I could be early again by 50%!