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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (81752)	12/14/2000 7:35:47 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 95453

Saddam's 27 Mbarrels vs Clintons 27 mb SPR release. Coincidence? December 14, 2000 Commodities Crude Oil Dips Below $28 A Barrel on Profit-Taking By MARIE C. SANCHEZ Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Crude oil futures tumbled through key levels Thursday as Iraqi crude flowed for a second straight day and a United Nations official confirmed Iraq's exports had resumed. January crude futures skidded 75 cents to a four- month low of $27.99 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract sank to $27.51 a barrel before recovering some ground in a flurry of late buying by those covering short positions, or bets on lower prices. Iraq allowed two Swiss-chartered tankers to begin loading Thursday, U.N. officials said, just one day after two Indian-chartered tankers lifted Iraqi oil, triggering a sharp sell off. "There's been more liquidation of year-end positions coupled with expectations that Iraq is going back to export levels of a month ago," said Mike Busby, trader at trading firm Northville Trading Corp. in Melville, N.Y. "And the perception that the economies of the world are slowing. Demand projections for crude are expected to decrease from six months ago," Mr. Busby said. This expectation is fueling a longer-term move down, Mr. Busby said, and participants who have been in the market for two years are now selling. Nearby crude futures have lost about $7, or 20%, since Iraq halted exports of 2.2 million barrels a day on Dec. 1. Refined products contracts are also down sharply since then. Heating oil and gasoline futures have lost about 15 cents each, or 15% and 17%, respectively. The sharp and unexpected price fall came as the U.S. and its allies pledged to cover the loss of Iraqi oil with the release of crude from their strategic reserves, and producing countries promised to boost output. No loadings of Iraqi crude were yet reported from Ceyhan, Iraq's other U.N.-authorized export outlet, apparently because there were no tankers there to load. U.N. officials said Baghdad's permission to the four tankers signals Iraq's intention to resume its oil exports in full. "Exports have resumed," a U.N. official said. Despite the drop in prices, all analysts aren't completely writing off a comeback. "Crude could find support from strength in heating oil," said Ed Silliere, marketing vice president at energy marketing company Energy Merchant. "But it broke its long-term uptrend last week." A cold snap, thin heating oil supplies and soaring natural gas futures could combine to fuel a heating oil rally, Mr. Silliere said. Others said an oversupply of crude could prove an illusion. "To judge by the price action, crude oil inventories must be rising or must be about to," said Tim Evans, analyst at research firm IFR Pegasus. "This hasn't been borne out by U.S. inventory data which has been relatively constant despite the 27.4 million barrels that have been released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve." By coincidence, Iraq, by suspending its oil exports for 12 days, took 27.6 million barrels off the market.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (81752)	12/15/2000 9:30:13 AM
From: Ronald J. Clark	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Ed--The missing first weeks are now included. AGA Table - Fall/Winter 2000 Weekly change in Gas Storage / Total Working Gas in Storage (Expressed in Billion Cubic Feet)= B See also Note at bottom of this table. 2000 1999 1998 1/07 -115B / 2322B 1/08 -233B / 2412B 1/09 -43B / 1989B 1/14 -110B / 2212B 1/15 -203B / 2209B 1/16 -159B / 1860B 1/21 -195B / 2017B 1/22 -92B / 2117B 1/23 -159B / 1701B 1/28 -242B / 1775B 1/29 -78B / 2039B 1/30 -102B / 1599B 2/4 -213B / 1562B 2/5 -93B / 1946B 2/6 -81B / 1518B 2/11 -158B / 1404B 2/12 -59B / 1885B 2/13 -93B / 1425B 2/18 -136B / 1268B 2/19 -97B / 1788B 2/20 -77B / 1348B 2/25 - 74B / 1194B 2/26 -128B / 1660B 2/27 -47B / 1301B 3/3 -37B / 1157B 3/5 -69B / 1591B 3/6 -54B / 1247B 3/10 -31B / 1126B 3/12 -132B / 1459B 3/13 -143B / 1104B 3/17 -62B / 1064B 3/19 -87B / 1372B 3/20 -78B / 1026B 3/24 -43B / 1021B 3/26 -37B / 1335B 3/27 -20B / 1006B 3/31 - 5B / 1031B 4/02 + 2B / 1337B 4/03 +53B / 1059B 4/07 + 2B / 1033B 4/09 +30B / 1367B 4/10 +22B / 1081B 4/14 -25B / 1008B 4/16 + 2B / 1369B 4/17 +54B / 1135B 4/21 +19B / 1027B 4/23 + 5B / 1374B 4/24 +64B / 1199B 4/28 +32B / 1059B 4/30 +34B / 1408B 5/01 +78B / 1277B 5/5 +58B / 1117B 5/07 +72B / 1480B 5/08 +100B / 1377B 5/12 +46B / 1163B 5/14 +79B / 1559B 5/15 +92B / 1469B 5/19 +55B / 1218B 5/21 +73B / 1632B 5/22 +92B / 1561B 5/26 +56B / 1274B 5/28 +71B / 1703B 5/29 +106B / 1667B 6/02 +78B / 1352B 6/04 +91B / 1794B 6/05 +85B / 1753B 6/09 +78B / 1430B 6/11 +63B / 1857B 6/12 +104B / 1857B 6/16 +64B / 1494B 6/18 +85B / 1942B 6/19 +82B / 1939B 6/23 +73B / 1567B 6/25 +91B / 2033B 6/26 +72B / 2011B 6/30 +69B / 1636B 7/02 +69B / 2102B 7/03 +74B / 2085B 7/07 +97B / 1733B 7/09 +59B / 2161B 7/10 +93B / 2178B 7/14 +70B / 1803B 7/16 +78B / 2239B 7/17 +79B / 2257B 7/21 +54B / 1857B 7/23 +41B / 2280B 7/24 +66B / 2323B 7/28 +63B / 1920B 7/30 +26B / 2306B 7/31 +70B / 2393B 8/04 +65B / 1985B 8/06 +45B / 2351B 8/07 +75B / 2468B 8/11 +52B / 2037B 8/13 +51B / 2402B 8/14 +76B / 2544B 8/18 +55B / 2092B 8/20 +50B / 2452B 8/21 +71B / 2615B 8/25 +52B / 2144B 8/27 +69B / 2521B 8/28 +57B / 2672B 9/01 +42B / 2186B 9/03 +66B / 2587B 9/04 +35B / 2707B 9/08 +72B / 2258B 9/10 +81B / 2688B 9/11 +70B / 2777B 9/15 +67B / 2325B 9/17 +78B / 2746B 9/18 +52B / 2829B 9/22 +77B / 2402B 9/24 +79B / 2825B 9/25 +41B / 2870B 9/29 +78B / 2480B 10/01 +62B / 2887B 10/02 +41B / 2911B 10/06 +62B / 2542B 10/08 +49B / 2936B 10/09 +41B / 2952B 10/13 +29B / 2571B 10/15 +42B / 2978B 10/16 +58B / 3010B 10/20 +71B / 2642B 10/22 +13B / 2991B 10/23 +36B / 3046B 10/27 +70B / 2712B 10/29 + 4B / 2995B 10/30 +48B / 3093B 11/03 +36B / 2748B 11/05 +12B / 3007B 11/06 -24B / 3070B 11/10 - 6B / 2742B 11/12 +9B / 3016B 11/13 -45B / 3082B 11/17 -94B / 2648B 11/19 -20B / 2996B 11/20 -13B / 3069B 11/24-146B / 2502B 11/26 +5B / 3001B 11/27 +8B / 3077B 12/01 -73B / 2429B 12/03 -69B / 2932B 12/04 +27B / 3104B 12/08-158B / 2271B 12/10 -73B / 2859B 12/11 -49B / 3055B 12/15 ? 12/17 -116B / 2743B 12/18 -85B / 2970B 12/22 ? 12/24 -173B / 2570B 12/25 -167B / 2803B 12/29 ? 12/31 -133B / 2437B 01/01 -158B / 2645B Note: 1. EIA revised 3/3/2000 draw from original -29B to -37B. 2. In reporting on the week ending 3/31/2000, EIA upwardly revised storage capacity by 46B (wihout this revision the draw for the week ending 3/31 would have been 51B).

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (81752)	12/16/2000 3:30:36 PM
From: rajaggs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Ed, >> As of the latest AGA report, if we get a cumulative draw for the rest of the winter equal to what it was from this point on last winter, storage will be down to 420 BCF at the end!<< There is not a snowball's chance in hell, of North America getting another winter as mild as last winter, which was THE mildest on record. When gas storage in system falls below 500bcf, the problems with distribution begin due to low operating pressures in areas furthest from sources of pressure. This is going to be an interesting and perhaps frightening, winter, which hopefully will allow a narrow escape that will serve as serious lesson of the precarious position of NA, on the energy front. The demand side of the energy equation must be addressed and very soon, if we are not to suffer breakdowns in supply, recessionary phases and skyrocketing costs for our energy, the supply of which cannot be taken for granted any longer. 'jaggs