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To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (81785)	12/15/2000 11:40:21 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

If I didn't hit any wrong keys on my calsulator, if we have draw at the same rate as the past calendar year, then next year at this time the reserves will be at 342 and next winter we will run out of gas in about January. Of course, everyone who can is bringing gas on line, so it won't be that bad. But how can prices possibly decline from where they are over the next eighteen months? Is my arithmetic wrong? I just took the draws from the rest of last year and added them to the draws so far this winter and subtracted from what we have now (which reflects additions over the summer). And I get 342. Put another way, we were at about 1000 at the end of the last heating season and right now we are 600 below what we had last year. Meaning we would end the heating season with 400 if we are lucky. And there may be less than than. If we are 600 below where we are now a year from now, we will run out. And none of this allows for extra NG generating cominmg on line, which I think will eat up new production. This is worse than a drought. I mean, in a drought, it always CAN rain. I cannot stand the risk of buying far-out NG futures but otherwise, in other ways, I am goinmg to stay fully invested in NG. I am going to convert any profits from short plays (I am short the Dow in a big way) into gas. (HGT, SJT)

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (81785)	12/16/2000 11:04:57 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

I just recalculated the draw-downs to make sure I had not made a mistake. Well, I had made a mistake. I did not include draw-downs for the rest of December. When you do that, the conclusion is that a year from now there will be no gas in storage at all. All that will be available is what comes down the pipelines. As I understand it, at the current time gas production is only increasing on the order of about 2% or less per year. We are entering an energy crisis that is much worse than any so far and this will be increasingly obvious over the next few months.

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (81785)	12/20/2000 2:06:19 PM
From: Ronald J. Clark	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

AGA Table - Fall/Winter 2000 Weekly change in Gas Storage / Total Working Gas in Storage (Expressed in Billion Cubic Feet)= B See also Note at bottom of this table. 2000 1999 1998 1/07 -115B / 2322B 1/08 -233B / 2412B 1/09 -43B / 1989B 1/14 -110B / 2212B 1/15 -203B / 2209B 1/16 -159B / 1860B 1/21 -195B / 2017B 1/22 -92B / 2117B 1/23 -159B / 1701B 1/28 -242B / 1775B 1/29 -78B / 2039B 1/30 -102B / 1599B 2/4 -213B / 1562B 2/5 -93B / 1946B 2/6 -81B / 1518B 2/11 -158B / 1404B 2/12 -59B / 1885B 2/13 -93B / 1425B 2/18 -136B / 1268B 2/19 -97B / 1788B 2/20 -77B / 1348B 2/25 - 74B / 1194B 2/26 -128B / 1660B 2/27 -47B / 1301B 3/3 -37B / 1157B 3/5 -69B / 1591B 3/6 -54B / 1247B 3/10 -31B / 1126B 3/12 -132B / 1459B 3/13 -143B / 1104B 3/17 -62B / 1064B 3/19 -87B / 1372B 3/20 -78B / 1026B 3/24 -43B / 1021B 3/26 -37B / 1335B 3/27 -20B / 1006B 3/31 - 5B / 1031B 4/02 + 2B / 1337B 4/03 +53B / 1059B 4/07 + 2B / 1033B 4/09 +30B / 1367B 4/10 +22B / 1081B 4/14 -25B / 1008B 4/16 + 2B / 1369B 4/17 +54B / 1135B 4/21 +19B / 1027B 4/23 + 5B / 1374B 4/24 +64B / 1199B 4/28 +32B / 1059B 4/30 +34B / 1408B 5/01 +78B / 1277B 5/5 +58B / 1117B 5/07 +72B / 1480B 5/08 +100B / 1377B 5/12 +46B / 1163B 5/14 +79B / 1559B 5/15 +92B / 1469B 5/19 +55B / 1218B 5/21 +73B / 1632B 5/22 +92B / 1561B 5/26 +56B / 1274B 5/28 +71B / 1703B 5/29 +106B / 1667B 6/02 +78B / 1352B 6/04 +91B / 1794B 6/05 +85B / 1753B 6/09 +78B / 1430B 6/11 +63B / 1857B 6/12 +104B / 1857B 6/16 +64B / 1494B 6/18 +85B / 1942B 6/19 +82B / 1939B 6/23 +73B / 1567B 6/25 +91B / 2033B 6/26 +72B / 2011B 6/30 +69B / 1636B 7/02 +69B / 2102B 7/03 +74B / 2085B 7/07 +97B / 1733B 7/09 +59B / 2161B 7/10 +93B / 2178B 7/14 +70B / 1803B 7/16 +78B / 2239B 7/17 +79B / 2257B 7/21 +54B / 1857B 7/23 +41B / 2280B 7/24 +66B / 2323B 7/28 +63B / 1920B 7/30 +26B / 2306B 7/31 +70B / 2393B 8/04 +65B / 1985B 8/06 +45B / 2351B 8/07 +75B / 2468B 8/11 +52B / 2037B 8/13 +51B / 2402B 8/14 +76B / 2544B 8/18 +55B / 2092B 8/20 +50B / 2452B 8/21 +71B / 2615B 8/25 +52B / 2144B 8/27 +69B / 2521B 8/28 +57B / 2672B 9/01 +42B / 2186B 9/03 +66B / 2587B 9/04 +35B / 2707B 9/08 +72B / 2258B 9/10 +81B / 2688B 9/11 +70B / 2777B 9/15 +67B / 2325B 9/17 +78B / 2746B 9/18 +52B / 2829B 9/22 +77B / 2402B 9/24 +79B / 2825B 9/25 +41B / 2870B 9/29 +78B / 2480B 10/01 +62B / 2887B 10/02 +41B / 2911B 10/06 +62B / 2542B 10/08 +49B / 2936B 10/09 +41B / 2952B 10/13 +29B / 2571B 10/15 +42B / 2978B 10/16 +58B / 3010B 10/20 +71B / 2642B 10/22 +13B / 2991B 10/23 +36B / 3046B 10/27 +70B / 2712B 10/29 + 4B / 2995B 10/30 +48B / 3093B 11/03 +36B / 2748B 11/05 +12B / 3007B 11/06 -24B / 3070B 11/10 - 6B / 2742B 11/12 +9B / 3016B 11/13 -45B / 3082B 11/17 -94B / 2648B 11/19 -20B / 2996B 11/20 -13B / 3069B 11/24-146B / 2502B 11/26 +5B / 3001B 11/27 +8B / 3077B 12/01 -73B / 2429B 12/03 -69B / 2932B 12/04 +27B / 3104B 12/08-158B / 2271B 12/10 -73B / 2859B 12/11 -49B / 3055B 12/15-158B / 2113B 12/17 -116B / 2743B 12/18 -85B / 2970B 12/22 ? 12/24 -173B / 2570B 12/25 -167B / 2803B 12/29 ? 12/31 -133B / 2437B 01/01 -158B / 2645B Note: 1. EIA revised 3/3/2000 draw from original -29B to -37B. 2. In reporting on the week ending 3/31/2000, EIA upwardly revised storage capacity by 46B (wihout this revision the draw for the week ending 3/31 would have been 51B).