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To: Tommaso who wrote (81808)	12/15/2000 11:41:45 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 95453

Clarification: by "NG generating" I mean new electrical power plants burning natural gas.

To: Tommaso who wrote (81808)	12/15/2000 11:59:34 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Tommaso, RE: "But how can prices possibly decline from where they are over the next eighteen months?" Really don't like the answer to that question. Let me say that if we penetrate 690 on the OEX today and don't bounce back, say hello to 640 on the OEX. IF we are going to experience a real bear market of more than a few months duration, then that would cut consumption at the same time that lots of NG is coming on line. Plus we have seen from CA what happens when push comes to shove in the energy industry vs economy game. Energy loses. I'm not saying this will happen, but it does answer the question. Best Regards, Roebear

To: Tommaso who wrote (81808)	12/15/2000 12:09:02 PM
From: ezspkns	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you are talking about a STORAGE report. NG is a largely flowing commodity. Inventory reflects pricing as much as anything. The storage peak-shaves for the production and pipe capacity. The low storage can be seen as an indicator that the buyers believe prices will come back down. eia.doe.gov A quick look about shows some insider selling in our much fav E&P land these days. And our concern is with the share price. I'm not going to predict anything, but my world allows for a declining share price from here. We are off a major unexpected weather event. Cold snaps from here are expected. Also possible are major mid-winter thaws, and NOBODY wants to anticipate -40 with $8 gas and get +40. What it all means is price spikes and major interruptions if a serious cold spell sets in, gradual moderation as normal weather plays out, and a ski slope given a thaw. IMVHO, and remember its worth what you paid... EZ

To: Tommaso who wrote (81808)	12/16/2000 11:28:17 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Tommaso - Why short the Dow which has a low P/E, some energy stocks, (XOM) and may be supported by the ESF / PPT ? Those stocks also pay dividends and you have resilient drug stocks like Merck and Johnson & Johnson in there. Many of those Dow stocks have strong European business in Euros, and their earnings will rise as the dollar drops. Why not the Nasdaq 100/ QQQ - high P/E, mostly high tech capital goods producers ? Plus, the added kickers that they are owned by the more volitle mutual funds (redemptions can force them to sell) and many of those stocks are heavily margined - which can lead to some big fast, drops. Does the lower cost of put options on the Dow make this a better choice than the QQQ ?