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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rogermci® who wrote (4290)	12/14/2000 9:42:23 PM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 19633

I'm sure than many an investor has gone bankrupt trying to guess Uncle Alan's mind set but I'll stick my neck out again and say that the most we can hope for on the 19th is a neutral bias. Greenspan is highly inflation phobic and until he sees a couple of months of seriously rising unemployment, he won't lower rates. The tight job market, I think, scares him more than the rising inventories. Having lived in a country where you can wake up in the morning, turn on the news, and find out that your local currency has been de-valued 10 per cent while you slept, I understand the sometimes irrational fear of inflation. Luckily, being paid in dollars, we kept only enough local currency for our day to day transactions so we weren't affected like the locals. Paul

To: rogermci® who wrote (4290)	12/14/2000 9:46:26 PM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19633

Roger, as of last week, 27 out of 27 economists surveyed predicted no rate cut next week. A neutral bias, however, is predicted by everyone and his dog. To me it's very simple, unless there's a surprise on Tuesday, this market is going nowhere in the short term. The Naz is down about 30% YTD, the last time it was this bad was in 1974 (down 33%), and the year before that (down 31% in 73). I wonder if anyone here lived through those rough times and perhaps can shed some light. High inflation, energy crisis? Regards, Tom