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To: Tushar Patel who wrote (122920)	12/14/2000 11:14:42 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Wow, sounds like someone pulled the cork out of the pig. It the economy goes into free fall it could be hard to stop. Jim

To: Tushar Patel who wrote (122920)	12/15/2000 6:48:44 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Tushar and Thread, RE: "The speed of the slowdown is amazing...here in San Francisco...office space...dot com closedowns. ...rents $60-$80 in May are now down to around $30-$60. Vacant office space has gone up over 50%" -------------------------------- The slowdown in office space isn't too surprising when you consider that BA real estate increased about 40%/yr between April-99 to April-00 [SJMN, 2000]. And rentals were up YTD about 40% (or 45%?) around July-00 from Jan-00 per an article in the SJMN around July-00. So, a 50% drop is only about a year's worth of retraction. How would you like to hear about a 31% drop in 2 weeks? A contact of a contact was seeking a house about two weeks ago in Silicon Valley. Fortunately, they didn't buy the house they were looking at, because today, only two weeks later, the price of the house is 31% lower. A drop was 'just previously' unheard of in Silicon Valley. Only a few months ago, homes received so many offers and had so many buyers, that it was the norm for bidding wars to bid up any house price at least 10% over the (already-outrageous) asking price. A home would be snatched up in one day and sometimes as fast as one hour. However, now it's different: homes that are still using yesterday's prices (i.e. October time frame) aren't being snatched up like they were before, and a drop in housing price was completely unheard of during the great Internet boom. Another contact told me he saw "for rent signs" on his jogging route for the first time. Another contact told me that his office property (in the heart of Silicon Valley) has a "for rent sign" up - the first time ever since 1996. Wow. Another contact told me that a contact of his foolishly spent an outrageous amount of money on his daughter's wedding. However, now his contact has a total networth that is now less than his daughter's wedding because his biz (probably a dotcom) suddenly went downhill. You can see the slow-down at the online stores of traditional retailers: these folks are offering less of a selection than last year. Online gift shopping isn't as good as last year because the selections are more limited in their effort to cut back. Regards, Amy J

To: Tushar Patel who wrote (122920)	12/15/2000 7:18:25 AM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 186894

Tushar, The tech economy seemed to hit a brick wall. So you look for explanations, are people waiting for P4's, are companies planning to upgrade to W2K after the first of the year, did companies spend their entire tech budget in a post Y2K buying frenzy in the 1st and 2nd quarter? I can't find a satisfying answer, so I have to assume that this slowdown will continue, that it's not an "event" that will correct soon, it's an intermediate term trend. John