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To: limtex who wrote (90283)	12/15/2000 11:31:58 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Poor Mr Bush. I don't think he bargained for this one. Assuming he's not a complete idiot, he'll be alright. Unlike with his pappy, this time 'round the economic downturn is at the beginning of his term, and he gets to blame it all, rightly or wrongly, on 8 years of Clintonomics. By the time the next election rolls 'round no one will even remember it happened.

To: limtex who wrote (90283)	12/15/2000 12:01:16 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 152472

6% growth to zero in two qtrs is historic. It is also the equivalent of an economic Tsunami. So far over 20% of Dow companies have warned, business in all sorts or sectors across the world has slowed down dramatically, there is now constant and increasing concern about European Banks exposure to the US corporates and loans to telcos. I guess we still have to see if this quarter is going to bring in 0% growth....though it might, the corresponding comp to last year will be tough (due to Y2K). The underlying issue is weather these economic conditions can be fought using rate cuts. Simply put, these are not structural problems.... The decline in growth may be a record (though I have no idea) but I think I need more evidence in the unemployment numbers for this to be considered a "crash". The underlying mechanisms of the economy (banking, credit, currency exchange) have not locked up. It is this type of action that would cause a worldwide crash. OTOH...I agree that the loans to telecom companies need to be watched. If these companies are denyed access to capital, it would be the type of incident that should cause AG to act immediately. I'm talking specifically about the Vodafone/DT/ATT type companies.... Slacker

To: limtex who wrote (90283)	12/15/2000 1:45:15 PM
From: Dennis O'Bell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

fyi - a well known perma weighs in to gloat how he told us so Message 15026939 Here is last summers prediction Message 14240907 He seems to have done his research, but he's been saying this kind of thing for the past 10 years from what I gather. So it's difficult to know what to believe without a lot more independent dd. Nonetheless I wouldn't dismiss all this out of hand, particularly concerning the dollar. I expect the Fed to continue with a wait and see for the upcoming meeting.