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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doren who wrote (36696)	12/15/2000 3:26:57 PM
From: Dr. Id	Respond to of 54805

Unfortunately we (or should I say Jeb's crackers and bumblers) seemed to have elected a president that from my view will probably not do anything about these problems. (He also seems relatively unintelligent. That's the nicest way I can put it.) Does anyone have the same feelings I've had? If so why don't we hear any complaints? Many have the same feelings...however, in the interest of preserving a great thread, most of us have taken those feelings to other threads (Curmudgeon thread, various porches, etc.) where you don't have to find a nice way to talk about doubya's unintelligence!:-) Dr.Id@politicsareagreatdivider.gov

To: Doren who wrote (36696)	12/15/2000 7:02:36 PM
From: Sunny	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I find it interesting that every one is raising the roof about the high cost of oil when natural gas is >4X the rate it was a year ago. Oil is an international commodity because there are cost efficient ways to move it. Natural Gas, tends to be more regional since the only way to move it cost effectively is to do it with pipe lines. Our nation's economy has been built based on cheap energy. When the Asia Flu hit in late 1997 the demand for oil dropped almost immediately. Unfortunately, Opec and the rest of the energy producers did not cut back on production until after there was a huge surplus built up. We saw the effect of this in late 98 and early 99 when the price of oil dropped to $12/bbl and gas at the pump dropped below $1/gal. The US oil industry was devastated by this series of events. Employment in the industry dropped nearly 50% in less than a year as producers quit drilling and began to shut in wells. The net effect on the market is somewhat akin to what we have seen in the past year with the stock market. We went from too much oil to barely enough to meet ongoing needs in about 18 months. Now the oil industry is running flat to take advantage of the higher prices that all of you being students of supply and demand economics knew would happen when demand outstrips supply. We are living with the result of the administrations falure to manage the market for oil. Since they and the US population have been the happy beneficiaries of cheap oil for most of the decade. Now we are paying the piper. (In the Campaign Mr. Gore called for congressional hearings because the US energy industry was selling their product at Market prices. Talk about ridiculous On the natural gas side, "global Warming" or some such has blessed us with mild winters for several years. And the demand for gas has been taken up by the power industry as the electric utilities have been weaning them selves off coal and switching to Natural gas because it is a cleaner burning fuel. On the West Coast, they have not been building any power plants, there has not been a refinery built in the US in the last 15 years because of the onerous burden associated with environmental laws. Now we can't respond to the demand because we do not have the capacity These forces have had the net effect of dramatically driving up the cost of Natural Gas and then the climatic conditions changed, it got cold and the heating demand kicked in and Gas prices went even higher. For those of you who were paying attention in the early 70's when the ARAB oil embargo was taking place and again in 78 when the Shah fell, you will recognize many of the same symptoms without the lines at the gas stations. This time you are feeling the effects a home with heating fuel or electrical shortages and high prices. When we couple the rise in energy cost with tight money we see the beginnings of the R word. Now, I do not know if our next administration will be significantly more successful at developing a coherent energy policy, but based upon their background I give them a better chance if we had life long politicos. Supply side economics worked, but left us deeply in debt. However, if each of us has more of our wages to spend or save as we choose and we get some help from the fed, we might have a better chance to stave off the full blown R word. There are no simple solutions, but the US based energy industry is not our enemy. And if we refuse to recognize the cost of overly strict regulations we will surely pay the price. (Lindy mentioned that South LA would probably be a most unfriendly place next summer if there were significant power shortages) The problem we face is none of this stuff can be fixed overnight. The cliche "The best time to plant a tree was 25 years ago, the next best time is now" seems to apply here. (you can substitute start your retirement fund if you like) America, snap out of it. Mr Gore didn't win and maybe God planned it that way. It is time to address some of the issues I have outlined above and he wasn't prepared or inclined to do it. Respectfully, Sunny

To: Doren who wrote (36696)	12/15/2000 7:34:11 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

>> Does anyone have the same feelings I've had? If so why don't we hear any complaints? The majority of the folks on this thread seem to prefer figuring out how to make the most out of the hand they are playing than complaining about not having been dealt a royal flush, Doren. That's why we have spent this year focusing on the positives of the GG method of stock picking rather than the negatives of politics, marco-economics, energy policies, and other issues out of our control. In the long term, great companies will outperform ordinary ones, regardless of the socio-economic back drop. But that's jmho, uf