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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (116670)	12/15/2000 5:57:44 PM
From: microhoogle!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

I realize that you are good at economics (I don't have any background whatsover, except that I know about Keynes whose theories you have quoted in the past). For some reason it is ingrained in me that in this cycle Boom is always followed by Bust cycle. While I do not believe that recession can be eliminated, but I do believe Best Practices of economic management will prolong Boom and reduce Bust periods (US being an example of this), where as shoddy practices will provide results to the contrary (indonesia being an example)

To: Neocon who wrote (116670)	12/15/2000 7:21:10 PM
From: oldbox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

There are many cause's of recessions. The type you are referring to is the "Inventory Induced" type. I believe we are heading to on that is not going to be traced to a single cause, but a combination of them: 1- High Dollar valuation which will cause a flight of foreign capital. 2- Wealth contraction as the Techno Bubble continues to pop. 3- Debt right offs by banks and corporations that financed the Tech build out and Credit Card give a ways. Capitalism teaches us many things, and to me "the more things change, the more they remain the same..." If you look at the recessions in the late 1800's they were not Inventory Induced, but Debt, Dollar or Asset induced.