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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjetstream who wrote (25037)	12/16/2000 1:24:36 AM
From: stomper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 49816

My hypothosis on this vendor financing scam is that the terms have become so loose for infra companies to keep growth going, that a substantial percentage of sales have turned into a CMGI-like Ponzi scheme for the hardware makers...BWDIK. -dave

To: jjetstream who wrote (25037)	12/16/2000 3:14:28 AM
From: AD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 49816

jjetstream, I agree totally. So many times folks say 'oh , it's nothing' ...but time proves it is something. Just the quiet beginning. Oh and guess who else raised reserves: CIEN . "Cisco isn't alone in facing the prospect of unpaid bills. Another supplier, fiber optic equipment maker Ciena Corp., of Linthicum, Maryland, also increased its provision for doubtful accounts -- to $19.2 million. From a few hundred thou!" --remember, CIEN cautioned about this not long ago. Now CSCO. This stuff ain't going away in this environment of slowing fiber sales/ demand. ps, sure CSCO will bounce. But it is also due to go lower. To me it's one of those stocks that everyone who wanted in , is in . Sellers will outnumber buyers in 2001 sometime imho.

To: jjetstream who wrote (25037)	12/16/2000 3:18:59 AM
From: AD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 49816

Optical Plays: The Next Group to Get Hammered By James J. Cramer 12/15/00 2:11 PM ET Uh oh, optical plays continue to get written about as being great opportunities as I open the reports of many of the tech mutual fund managers I have money with. They are all loved. They have to be bought because of the "great secular" story of optical build-up. That' s just plain stupid. That's just plain stupid. That's just plain stupid. I wrote that three times because sometimes people skip over things on the Web. These build-outs are all slowing. The demand is slowing. The money for them is now hard to get. Worse, some of the good optical plays have big lock-up expirations where venture capitalists who paid pennies per share have chances to bail from them. They will. They have to. They can't believe how poorly they are doing away from optical and they will take the gains as long as they still have gains. I was reading some interview this morning with Kevin Landis, the Firsthand's guy, in Investor's Business Daily, and it was typical of the kind of Panglossian nonsense that these fund managers spew out these days. Everything is just fine in that world, Landis insists. He is loaded for bear with them. And Landis is one of the good guys! When the semiconductor world was unraveling, I backed Jon Joseph's call to get out of the group. I took a lot of heat here. I didn't want to open my mailbox. I was too timid in retrospect because of that heat. So I am making up for it now with the next group that could be hammered. And the declines you have seen do not qualify as hammered. These stocks will bounce. They are too loved by portfolio managers not to. They should be sold when they bounce. They should be sold when they don't bounce, too, but I am hopeful that we see some sort of move up so you can sell into strength instead of weakness. And ignore those who tell you all is well in this optical business. If I were a proctologist, I would make house calls to these managers to extricate their brains before it's too late to help them.

To: jjetstream who wrote (25037)	12/16/2000 9:03:34 AM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 49816

Hi jjetstream, there's more to CSCO than just that. Seq. rev. is dropping on a percentage basis. And, margins are dropping. CSCO has come out and said, it's margins may decline in upcoming qtrs. These are just some of the reasons why CSCO is down from 82. But, it doesn't matter to me over the next few days, it will bounce, IMO. And, that's all I care about at this point. I still think the market over-reacted to the news, short term anyway.