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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wes Stevens who wrote (1352)	12/16/2000 11:29:15 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

What do the insiders know that this thread does not? Or maybe the better question is what do these insiders not know that we know? Get real. Insiders sell at the end of every lock-up period. Heck, they did with Juniper, Brocade, RedBack, Ariba....bunch of loser companies indeed. I'm sure if you looked back far enough you would see a ton of insiders selling at Cisco, MSFT, and Apple after those stocks had their first great runs and the lock-up expired. If I had thousands of options, and was suddenly a paper millionaire, and I really was nothing other than a passive investors what would I do? Let it all ride or take my sure few million. Personally I'd probably sell off probably 75%, leave 25% and keep my sure million. Tinker P.S. About AVNX warning. Lets assume a worse case scenario, capital expenditures for the net build out grow 0% in 2001. Say it stays at 100. Currently CAP EX for optical is 20% of the total budget. But in 2001, given the need to modernize the Net and increase efficiency CAP EX spending for optical rises to 40% of the whole. Result: 2000 - $100 CAP EX, $20 optical spending. 2001 - $100 CAP EX, $40 optical spending. In summary, optical spending is disruptive. It is supplanting traditional network spending. Thus, even if CAP EX spending for the telecoms was frozen at current levels (which it is not) the optical companies would still see total CAP EX on their products increase by 100% yoy. The optical companies could probably survive an overall budgt freeze for 2001 and 2002 before it would start to hurt.