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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (64414)	12/16/2000 5:09:19 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

re Easy Al--My 2c is that 1)He is well aware that the Greenspan Put has caused people to stay far too bullish for too long and that this factor in and of itself is unhealthy in the long run, and 2)He is likely to be quite wary of Bush' megatax cut plans----so that -If Anything--He will resist cutting rates longer than the concensus expects---he may for eg resist even in late Jan...Being from the old school, he likely dismisses the Naz crazyness as simply a casino both up as well as down and so he looks over to the DJ and SPX and sees only minor dips. To him, that's the real market-even though many shooters on WS only look at the Naz (silly boys he thinks)...Bottom line, I seriously doubt he is going to be silly enough to play Easy Al so quickly and run the real risk of reigniting the Bubble that the Fed unfortunately help to create by being too loose in 98/99. Only when the Greenspan Put is retired to its grave will he feel comfortable enough to cut rates materially. And the simple truth is that on average people are FAR too bullish at this point in the cycle-and G knows that he in fact induced such a risk free atmosphere in the first place and that the Street is playing him for a fool. My gut feel is that Easy Al is no more....In fact it is just such Bullishness and Fear of Missing the Rally that I am counting on to take the wind out of the market's sails on Tuesday and induce sub 2500. Gentlemen start your engines.