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To: Walter Xie who wrote (7642)	12/17/2000 3:57:47 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Respond to of 13572

Walter Xie: "Are we in the early stage of a bear market or the end of it?" IMHO, the end of it. History tells us that with the exception of 1973-1974 ( which we beset with rampant inflation, oil embargoes, and a very different international climate), no bear market has lasted more than 12 months. Since the tech bear market seems to have begun in March 2000, I do not see more than 1-2 months of this misery. The investing climate in 2001 will not be all that bad. There is remarkable world peace and stability, minimal inflation, and the specter of several interest rate cuts in 2001 (although it is difficult to know when they will start). Most companies (with the exception of several tech high-flyers) are so beaten-down and washed out that there is not much downside left for the ones with strong earnings and favorable forward prospects. Additionally, they will enter the Fall 2001 with favorable earnings comparisons to Fall 2000. I am not saying that it will be investing euphoria. Some of the tech stocks with P/E's of over 100 may still correct substantially, but there will be ample opportunity to invest and make money in the 2001 market. Some sectors other than tech that I think will do well: generic pharmaceuticals, independent energy/power producers, beaten-down retailers, financials, homebuilders.