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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dblclk who wrote (62057)	12/20/2000 1:15:10 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116932

dblclk ? re: <It looks as if your enthusiastic entry into drooy and all things xau was a tad hasty at this date.> ... you know; I never owned a Gold, or Silver stock (other than about 3-4 individual trades this past May during the NAZ meltdown) nor a single gold, or silver coin prior to this fall. I've never been a Gold Bug - ever; but this fall; as the XAU waffled around 50ish; then broke under it - I saw what I still firmly belive will be a "HISTORIC" cyclical opportunity and I began building a "portfolio weighted" position in Gold & Silver stocks. Yes; a portfolio weighting - now at 50%. The Market appeared to me as an unsustainable bubble. The US Dollar appeared to have reached an unsustainble attractiveness given our account deficit & level against other currencies; indeed impacting US Corporate profits and creating stress fractures in other currencies/economies. The oft opined situation concerning the Derivative/Short position and the supression of the POG via the ESF/PPT et al - needing to supress Gold prices to bail out LTC, to allow King Dollar to remain a magnet for foreign investment into the face of rising US inflationary indicators - $30+ Oil etc was not a paranoic delusion; quite the opposite; it was merely imo a part of the Fed's "stabilization" policy of inflation & the US Dollar. But; stabilization via intervention is just another form of manipulation and all manipulation is artificial & artificial manipulations usually end badly... so with all the fundamental reasons to own Gold here & now; I view the potential of a Gold Derivative short covering spike as merely - potential icing on the still very attractive fundamental cake. dbclk; I have held Oil & Gas Stocks as 100% of my portfolio since the dark days of $10 Oil in 1998 - witht the sole exception a brief DCB trade of the April-June NAZ blowoff. Many of the same sentiment similarities existed in the XAU & Gold stocks of late as did in the Oil stocks back in those dark days of $10 Crude. This fall I began taking profits & rolling out of my Oil stocks; shorting Tech and accumulating via slowly & steadilly averaging in; a portfolio weighted position in Gold & Silver. yes; I did buy some XAU stocks at 50, but I bought a whole lot more at XAU 42-45 as well. I'm profitable here in my Gold position here - not greatly, but in the black. I've done a little trading, used trailing stops to the downside etc - nothing to write home about yet - that I acknowledge. But I have a 50%+ Portfolio weighting in these stocks and I accumulated them in the single cheapest "quarter" of the last 15 years of the XAU. - so if you want to criticize a market timing call; let's put it in proper perspective. I made my first portfolio weighting in my life; into Golds & the XAU'; during the lowest priced & cheapest "quarter" in the last 15 years of the XAU - period. Now; I don't know where you come from "dblclk" but from the selection of your "Doubleclick" screen name - it's from a dot.com-ish appelation which speaks volumes... I'll also venture to say; that anyone who made a portfolio weighted bet on virtually any cyclical sector; be it Oil & Gas, or Gold & Silver; at the cheapest point of the last 15 years; will stand to eventually do pretty damn well. So; I guess since I'm a pretty recent convert here; we're just going to have to wait & see where the gold & silver stocks go over the next few months . I also think given that a Fed Cut which could/should weaken the dollar; which should move the POG upward; along with a continued collapse in the NAZ may create some more foreign repatriation from our market - which will also weaken the dollar & could / should also cause Gold to move upward - that you should be grabbing a few shares before its too late (VBG). I have no problem holding 6-9 even 24mos here at a cost basis of around XAU 45; no problem what so ever. The critics & naysayers towards gold seem to forget that there have been approx 6 runs on XAU 150 in the last 15 years and Gold had been given its last rites more than once in between those cycles as well. It astounds me that the Gold naysayers & critics seem to ignore reality - that the XAU is a highly profitable cyclical sector and has continually been so for the last 15 years ? Also, strangely the critics want to cite longterm POG charts and not XAU charts ? I'm not trading bullion; I'm trading the stocks... allthough I am buying some physical Silver Coin bags and will perhaps add some Gold coins as well. The same negative comments can be thrown toward the Oil Sector as well; as it's had its share of boom to bust subcycles as well; but if you time your entries & exits; it is extremely profitable and will probably continue to be so. I went 100% oils in the fall of 1998 and sold 75% in August this year - was that a bad call ? I got about 90% of that move. I made my first "portfolio weighted" entry in my life into Gold & Silver stocks this fall- again; during the "cheapest" quarter in the last 15 years for the XAU - and I've got about a XAU 45-46 cost basis; within 10% of the bottom - is this a bad call ? ... obviously too soon to call; but I expect similar returns to my Oilpatch forray and all we can do is wait & see and listen to the cheap seat - bleacher bum critics like dbclk bite at our ankles in the meantime... You say - "my enthusiastic entry into all things XAU & Gold - a tad bit hasty " ? ... not in my book dblclk; not at all & quite the contrary in my humble opinion. Give the Golds some time and once again; if not here & now at a 15 year low, some alltime individual lows; at alltime valuation metric lows - such as price per ounce of production, or reserves; and an incompatible King US Dollar - US Account deficit, imploding debt & equity markets, atop an Oil Shock, into a slowing economy with the Fed needing to cut rates which weakens the US dollar -> then when ? If not here & now; when dbclk ? OPEC must hedge the simultaneous present collapse/correction in Crude Prices & the US Dollar in which they are paid. OPEC went heavilly to gold at the end of virtually every past Oil Shock and they will again here shortly & rumors are circulating they all ready are. Why do you think Saddam insisted he gets his Oil priced in Euro's ? Wonder about all those reports of Saddam hording Gold with his Black Market Oil sales of late ? Saddam may be crazy; but he "aint" stupid (VBG)... Let there be an Oct 98-esque Market Crash, another Mortgage Backed Securities crisis, another Russia, Brazil, Mexican Peso crisis, Argentine Bond collapse, LTC etc... and perhaps that short-derivative postion that is out there just may create the Mother of all Short Squeezes/Gold Bull Runs... But; we don't need that. At the very least; a return to XAU 75-90 which is very realistic thru 2001 imo; won't be anything to feel ashamed of...and if we get a "crisis catalyst" ? - XAU 90-125; even XAU 150 for the 6th, or 7th time in the last 15 years would certainly silence the naysayers. dbclk... it isn't too late to get on board... but; the train may soon be leaving the station - don't miss it...