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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (17264)	12/18/2000 12:17:12 AM
From: Guardian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

finally: someone else parroting my fear expressed earlier on the INSP thread, the stimulus for which came from viewing a cnbc chart which scared me right much in terms of market direction: Message 14916772 DiabloMarket Commentary for the week ending 12-15-00 DiabloFact to Ponder While the day to day disappointments of this market may seem confusing, we believe it is all about "regression to the mean". What we mean by this is simply that the order of things generally follows a pattern. If that pattern is skewed one way or the other in an extreme fashion, a backlash often occurs, returning the overall trendline to its normal position. Some call it a pendulum swing... This is quite true, we believe, for the NASDAQ, which was wildly overbought, culminating last spring in a 'play at any price' mentality. Thus, the backlash is a period of substantial underperformance, after which the long term trendline will look "normal" again. We would like to call your attention to the 7 year chart of the Nasdaq...along with an obvious growth trendline. Draw the picture. Do the excercise. We believe you will see our point. This type of 'regression to the mean' occurs in all facets of life...lets look at the 'Greenhouse Gases' Theory...that earth Temperature has climbed this century due to man made pollution...leading to Global Warming...and it is our fault...but wait... The same scientists, and the Geologic record will tell you, by and large, that the last century was one of the coldest in recent history. Thus, this century's warming trend may simply be a 'regression to the mean'. After all, earth temperature has fluctuated wildly before...Scientists tell us we have been in and out of 18 Ice Ages in the last 2 million years or so...'regression to the mean' Ponder it!