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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (22855)	12/18/2000 4:48:09 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash at this point I do not see Mustang as a problem. Last thing amd needs right now is an extra cost that is associated with Mustang. Bloodbath may not happened as intel is loosing it's support from "capital gains" and high gm but, on another hand, we can never accuse of intel and amd management of rational thinking. I never try to predict the prices but all things given if it drops any lower I would be buying more. Regards -Albert

To: kash johal who wrote (22855)	12/18/2000 5:14:37 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: Intel seems to be ramping 0.13 early. Intel is good at this (impressive claims). In early 1999 Intel claimed it would be shipping .18 parts in April of 1999, while AMD's .18 process wasn't due until the end of the year with a superior copper version to follow. In April of 1999 Intel claimed they were shipping .18 parts - but they were samples. The first actually available parts showed up in October of 1999. Within a few months, AMD had their .18 process ramping, and had significant .18 capacity before Intel did - particularly in terms of percentage of plant converted. Now Intel is again claiming an April time frame (this time, 2001) for its new process (this time .13). And once again, AMD has a superior process (with lowK SOI as opposed to Intel's plain copper) set to come out 9 months later. Intel has yet to produce a saleable copper chip, much less produce volume .13 on copper. Maybe this time Intel will pull it off - but they sure didn't last time. And last time it was a simple shrink, not their first experience with copper. Dan

To: kash johal who wrote (22855)	12/18/2000 5:27:12 PM
From: porn_start878	Respond to of 275872

from ALbert's : * Signs of market share loss in 1H01 on microprocessors. We were surprised by the design-in gains being made by AMD. Driven by a combination of competitive clock rates and aggressive pricing, a number of motherboard vendors suggested to us that strong market share gains are likely for AMD. Although Taiwan has always been more friendly to AMD as a corollary to Intel's focus on leading tier-one PC OEMs, sometimes to the detriment of Taiwan vendors, we believe that even traditional U.S.-based OEMs are looking increasingly favorable at Athlon vs. Pentium 3. In addition, we see a little sense of urgency for vendors to adopt Pentium 4 for mainstream computers. As we've noted previously, a combination of limited performance gains (with business applications running on 1.5 GHz Pentium 4 showing typically 5% performance increases over 1 GHz Pentium 3s) as well as more expensive system cost driven by RDRAM is limiting near-term demand for Pentium 4 based systems. One could write : Seems next year to be pretty interesting. Intel won't do .13u P4 before late Q3. Tuallatin will outperform P4 big times and will be very low volumes. Durons clockspeed will match coppermine's. So much competition in socketA infrastructure will drive integrated or not mobos price down. Duron will get as omnipresent as the celeron currently is. celeron will dye as fast as the K6 died this year. With PIII at celeron price, Intel is in trouble. P4 systems are too expensive for no performance gain. Palomino will yield at a 1.33 sweet spot in end Q1. Infrastructure will be already there waiting for Pally mass production. Intel will never match AMD's ASP, or they'll warn Q after Q. Intel won't have any cheap infrastructure advantage anymore, but rather the opposite in the high end. No Brookdale until Q1'02. This is how things are. That's my point. The sky will fall. Nazdaq to 1500 in January. Max, trying to be realistic. (sorry kash I can't stand those sporadic apocalyptic though)