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To: Monty Lenard who wrote (48899)	12/18/2000 8:18:14 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

i think the extent of the NDX decline has to be seen in the context of the size of the preceding blow-off...so far we're merely back to '99 levels. This is precisely why I think this is just the beginning.

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (48899)	12/18/2000 9:01:37 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

yep...i think it's no exaggeration though to expect a great many stocks to eventually disappear from the list. in other words, they'll hit the ultimate support level, zero. the technical term 'oversold' does unfortunately not refer to business fundamentals, which are engaged in a rapid disappearing act...in fact the economic downturn seems to be much worse than is generally believed. if one looks at a longer term chart of the NAZ it looks as though the entire move from the Oct. '98 lows was a speculative blow-off, engineered by the Fed...looking at the pendulum swings of past bull/bear markets, common features are that the bear phase somehow mirrors the bull phase in intensity, and that by the time the bear phase ends, stocks are not just 'fairly' valued, or even 'undervalued', but SEVERELY undervalued, even relative to the economy which will by then have deteriorated to such an extent that even the most braindead former clowns will realize something is wrong. so ask yourself, at what level could the NAZ(or the SnP for that matter) possibly be considered severely undervalued? note: the long term, pre-bubble p/e channel of the NAZ was roughly 15 - 45. a return to the upper boundary of that channel would require a further 60% haircut,ceteris paribus. i better shut up or we'll get a 500-point rally tomorrow...-g-