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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (38373)	12/19/2000 12:39:36 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Hi JRI IMHO .. Tech sector is going to be just killed during earnings reporting season. Cross investments within the sector have not been factored into the warnings given out as of yet. We are in a slow grinding bear market. The question is whether or not we are about to have a sharp correction in this bear market. (read that as a strong spike up.) A couple of weeks ago I was expecting to see first a relief rally from the election stuff being resolved then a pre FOMC rally. OK .. so say that the election resolution was worth a +5 on the current slope .. the current slope being a -2 .. overlay a +5 for the pre FOMC run up .. OK that only leaves the impact of earnings on the market .. Earnings are still a question mark .. however, the impact of the expectations about earnings must be larger than the impact of election resolution and the FOMC pre run together. The only override I can see right now would be a surprise lowering from the fed. Now that folks are talking about it, it would no longer be a surprise. Relitive to the above scales I would put the expectations about earnings at about a -10 or more. I still have no handle on the impact of all the missed numbers that I expect. There is some very heavy weight on the market right now. The path of least resistance is down. IF we run up for the next couple of weeks, it should prove to be a very good point to purchase puts and unload stock. For myself, I put in a sell order on the 401k timed to move to fixed interest as of the close today. I'm expecting a "sell the news" kind of move tomorrow.

To: JRI who wrote (38373)	12/19/2000 8:30:39 AM
From: macavity	Respond to of 42787

A lurker writes. Pretty decent thread - No bitching just views. JRI - I agree with you which is why I stop trying to think what is going to happen nowadays. I do not mean to sound glib but when people (fundamental bulls and bears) start justifying their stances then its definitely back to the charts for me. It does not matter what the Fed does - only what the market does. (NDX/COMPQX): Short-term Trend is down 5 - 21D EMAs Intermediate-term Trend is down 26 - 51 D EMAs Market is short-term o/sold i)If Market goes up - wait for market to get short-term o/bought and sell. The NDX generals (exp ORCL) are all underwater - they cannot rally back significantly. Most have made new 52Week lows in past 10 days. ii)If Market goes down breaking Nov2000 lows and NewLows < 750 (preferably below 500)then I would look to buy QQQ (I would leave particular stocks alone as God only knows what disasters have been going on in these companies) Gun2Head - I would be long for an o/sold bounce. I do not think the risk/reward justifies it though at these levels. I want to see the NDX down to 2400 (or lower) and a bit more of this capitulation to justify me going long against the trend. There are some mild bullish divergences, but trends still point south. Everyone is waiting for the rally. (Gee - I guess they must be long then). I do not trade intra-day so I am waiting patiently at the sidelines. Point to note 30YBond futures formed a bearish reversal yesterday (higher high;lower close). I think someone is going to sell the 'news' on this one. -macavity

To: JRI who wrote (38373)	12/19/2000 9:59:28 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

A lot of good observations on this thread. I have only one point to add: look at a COMPX price/volume chart over the last two weeks and compare it to the last sizeable consolidation in the 3000-3500 range. Better quality up moves and volume patterns this time; just looks a whole lot better than the previous consolidation. I was calling for 2500-2800 when we were in the 3000-3500 range. I can't see that happening here. I don't expect us to take off from here; a trading range between here and 3000 is the most likely scenario I see at this point. Don't think yesterday was quite a bearish engulfing, because we didn't take out Friday's lows.