Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (87173)	12/19/2000 2:06:02 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

>>As opposed to any other form of statistical finagling normally associated with the "dismal science"?<< yes. ron, please name another finagling that doubled gdp (productivity) and created a "new era" in one fell swoop of a pen (and nothing else changing)? there is something called degree... >>Two major events/issues have clearly contributed to having money supply jacked up to such rates for limited periods of time, namely the LTCM/Asian Contagion event, and Y2K. But AG has been severely constricting money supply since January and jacking up rates.<< ron, first, easy al has not constricted money supply. i'll assume you just left off the critical "growth" part. sure, growth is down this year, as it should be. wrt y2k, easy al said he would ciphon off the excess y2k cash and then didn't do it b/c the idiots running the asylum used the dough to run the naz up to 5k. this is the same easy al that manipulates markets by announcing "surprise" rate cuts 15 minutes before options expiration in ordetr to bale out piss poor managers - ltcm. what happened to personal responsibility? ;-) wrt interst rates in the 50s, huh, times are different. that is clearly an apples and oranges proposition. interest rates turned negative in japan for a period of time. do you assert we should have negative interest rates? that would be absurd. no more so than comparing now to 1950. >>The real issue with regard to money supply growth is the quality of the loans that are being made and the value and liquidity of the collateral that is being provided.<< agreed. with much of the loaned money going into an asset bubble (stock market, certain real estate areas), i'm compelled to believe disaster is ahead. take a look at the trend in company credit ratings. take a look at the near 0% savings rate. take a look how quickly the 401k money that offset the 0% savings rate evaporated and left a big hole. take a look at historical valuations models that will come back into vogue once the "new era" statistical lie is exposed. consider that as real estate has exploded in many areas that equity has dropped. a lot of that money went into the naz 3k+. this is a serious witches brew, imho. btw, i think easy al eases rates. he looks at his shoes and ignores the clouds on the horizon as do most politicians and americans. btw, ask yourself why easy al has been raising interest rates so much. is it b/c he lowered them too far? DOH!

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (87173)	12/19/2000 2:50:22 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Ron, >>Two major events/issues have clearly contributed to having money supply jacked up to such rates for limited periods of time, namely the LTCM/Asian Contagion event, and Y2K. But AG has been severely constricting money supply since January and jacking up rates.<< By some standards money and credit growth has been rapid since about 1995. That coincides with the explosion of the S&P and Nascrap. It seems to me we have a hugely flawed monetary system. The Fed sets rates and conrtols the money supply growth primarily based on inflation measurements that are entirely subjective, that do not include asset prices, and without much regard for the available domestic savings level etc.... Futhermore, as many in this thread have pointed out, there are numerous problems with measuring GDP, even without including the areas that are controversial (like hedonics). IMO money and credit growth must some how be closely related to what's actually going on in the real economy from a lot of perspectives, yet we have close to no clue what that is at present using government or private stats that are inaccurate, subjective, and trailing. Wayne