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To: James Strauss who wrote (7150)12/19/2000 5:50:41 PM
From: Bucky Katt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13094
 
Jim, as I posted on the Rande thread, soon after the FED announcement, I went short the NDX (2575) on it's little spike back up. I figured that the gain would fizzle like a bad fart, and it did. The NDX is in real trouble here.
Message 15049238
I know you were looking long on it, I am sure you cashed that position out. The E-mini Nasdaq futures and CBOE puts are the best way to play, Imo. I was waiting for the FED to speak, ready to go either way...
The SPX-OEX calls I had turned in a nice gain, I got out of those when I went short the NDX.

If the funds keep liquidating due to redemptions, and retail players keep getting hit with margin calls, this could continue to feed on itself. I am looking at 2288 on the NDX as the next inflection point. If that is taken out, on a closing basis, 2025 may be the next stop.
If we see this happen this week, we may begin to see some real panic, which I don't think has happened yet.
A lot of pissed-off people who do not understand the dynamics of what is happening, but no panic, yet.
If we get panic, that might be the time to go long.
Of course, I could change my mind in a Florida minute, but this seems logical.
What do you think?

I mentioned NEWP this morning, and that the range was tighter than usual, and that that might mean something. It sure did, it really went to hell..(it followed the exact same time/price pattern south as the NDX)

And something weird, with no moves in silver or gold today, the XAU gained 2.5%, so regardless of the metal price, money is flowing into that sector. I kinda understand that this may be a an early warning signal, if it continues. Something to be cognizant of.