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To: jim_p who wrote (82091)12/19/2000 2:00:12 PM
From: kodiak_bull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Tech, to me, is still a poker hand. Although some of the individual prices are approaching attractive levels, the Naz as a whole at 2600 or so doesn't appear quite cheap enough. I have a "Christmas Tech List" that I look at quite often, and most of the stocks are approaching the levels I want to see (yesterday's levels, anyway). Also, the last two "untouchables," Cisco and Sun, have begun to take their trips to the woodshed. I like Sun at or under 25 and Cisco at or under 37. But even there, unless there's a big, overall tech blowoff, I'm not sure we're at the sweetspot.

That's not to say you can't buy hereabouts and get a good price, or on another big, pre 2001 dip, and get a great price. But, maybe, like Christmas presents at Circuit City, no matter how good the prices look now, you won't believe what they're blowing them out the door for in February. Cisco at 29? Sun at 18? You may call me greedy (but not to my face, please) but what I'm looking for are: unbelievable prices. That's the way, uh-huh, uh-huh, I like it, uh-huh, uh-huh!!

These aren't predictions, just questions, and vague desires. I don't see any reason to buy anything other than traders at this point, but that's just mis dos centavos, compadres y amigas.

Kb



To: jim_p who wrote (82091)12/19/2000 2:32:53 PM
From: rolatzi  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Waiting for the third shoe to drop on Tech!

I'm still waiting for another down leg to flush out the bulls. There has been no capitulation, i repeat, no capitulation and the economy continues to weaken. I would wait a while longer before considering tech.
rolatzi



To: jim_p who wrote (82091)12/19/2000 3:29:02 PM
From: Jon Cave  Respond to of 95453
 
ot: techs and Oils

I purchased a few techs today hoping for a rate cut and dumped them immediatley when we didn't get the cut. There is just no incentive to buy techs right now. I would expect buyers to step asside and tax loss selling to drop prices probably another 10%. The question is when to buy.

In the past, buying after Xmas and before Jan 1 has been a good buying opportunity for the new year bounce. But, if the Fed doesn't meet until Jan 30th, I am not so sure if buying after Xmas is a good deal. Also, I read some where that 40% of earnings warnings come after Jan 1 for the current quarter. That is scary.

I sold half my MRL and ATW today. Bought a little more KEG. What is the best oil/gas stock with the best reward/risk ratio.

I have high hopes for MDR longer term. GLBL is looking like a good risk/reward here unless tax selling kicks in and drops it back down below 10. PKD looks interesting here also. For the conservative, I like OXY here. Looks like interest has been pickup for OXY in the past few days.

We need a good API to keep the ball roilling. I would expect a pullback very soon in the OSX.



To: jim_p who wrote (82091)12/19/2000 4:34:40 PM
From: JungleInvestor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
jim, re tech suggestions: I filled my Christmas stocking with April SBLU calls.



To: jim_p who wrote (82091)12/19/2000 8:56:44 PM
From: sportsman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Jim, OT tech
A better choice than AMAT would be NVLS. Novellus has been winning the war in copper against AMAT. Novellus will also hold up better in a sustained downturn due to new products. A very interesting tech play is COMS. They are trading around 1X revenues with around $8 a share in cash and no debt. They could possibly buy back almost all of their shares with cash and retain their business and some lucrative real estate. They report tomorrow and have already warned due to softness in their networking business. They also have a new internet appliance (Audrey) that has just hit the market and is selling briskly. I believe this is a great long term value play and could rise nicely in January. Their conference call tomorrow will be worth listening to for anyone interested. By the way, it is trading at $8.
Good luck,
Sportsman
ps. sold 2/3 of my oei yesterday thank goodness. OEI could have a difficult time breaking out of this trading range until some of their new discoveries come on line in 2002.