Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ftth who wrote (9842)	12/19/2000 9:26:13 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

"I'm not sure I agree it lessens the perceived need for DVD, since you don't have anywhere close to the number of titles available via VoD services today" ftth- But this is today. Tomorrow is unlimited. I'm guessing server space is going to be a minor consideration. Therefore if VOD turns out to be successful, then soon we'll be able to order every movie, every made, in every language, blah, blah....Like the Qwest commercial. Ha. Ha...but somewhat seriously. "But as I suggested before, they can artificially limit the demand by offering a lame selection of movies and not update them." And right you are. Both times we wanted to watch another movie(and pay the MSO another $3.95 for each time), we sat down and went through the titles. No luck. A few days later did it again with the idea we would settle for less. But still no luck. So they just blew $8 from this sub who was perfectly willing to give them the money if they offered the content. Remember this is coming from the guy with the computer monitor closely matching his TV size.<g> -MikeM(From Florida) PS Thanks for more details on the cable plant. I'm absorbing the post now and I've already thought of a couple more Q&A. It's looking very interesting to me.

To: ftth who wrote (9842)	12/20/2000 1:12:14 AM
From: geoffrey Wren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

The scheme of things as I see it: 1. That the movie guys will realize that they just have to take their chances on pirating. They are silly. They fought the VCR tooth and nail, the Supreme Court ruled against them (saying, sensibly, that there was little evidence the people used the VCR to watch pirate copies of movies), and the VCR provides all sorts of additional income for them now. Most people are not going to bother to pirate movies if the cost of viewing is in the range of $3. In college I used to record my friend's LP's on my cassettes; now I just buy cassettes or CD's. This is especially true if the mode of distribution is over the cable line. But you are right that Hollywood will have to get with the program before a system can really take off. 2. I don't think people need or want to keep a large cache of video. Music you listen to 10 times before you stop replaying. Video, once, maybe twice. 3. Sure people think of jumping in the car and going to Blockbuster as not a big thing, but once they see the benefit of planning ahead, the trip to Blockbuster will be as welcome as going to a bank and standing in a long line. 4. The benefit of this system, is that it allows the early users to pay for the system. Modern VCR's were made possible by the early users who paid $1,000 (real money in 1979), when they worked poorly, and video stores were hard to find. I think people would be willing to pay for this box if it provides high perceived utility. The cable operators could maybe subsidize the cost a little. Costs will come down rapidly. 5. My main point is that I think it will cost cable operators a lot of money, and it will take many years before there can be seamless VoD, so all their sunk cost in improving the infrastructure, growing every year, will have no dividends for years if they wait for the perfect system. And they risk another system filling the void in the interim. Cost of capital will kill them in the long term. What I propose could be in place in 18 months technologically speaking. Copyright law and other considerations could stymie it though. 6. I predict you will see AOL and Time Warner go for something like this in the near future.