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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kollmhn who wrote (82198)	12/20/2000 3:13:17 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

koll One other point that needs to be made is that the increased capex budgets are going to end up mostly in the service sectors pockets. I don't foresee drilling increasing that much in 2001 over 2000. The dollars will continue to be over weighted on the gas side though. Will it be enough ? Only time will tell. Best

To: kollmhn who wrote (82198)	12/20/2000 3:38:27 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

1.9 % NG supply growth in 2001 Thanks - that's probably a better estimate. Someone on this thread published an excellent list of the public small E&Ps and their gas production growth last year. I beleive it was down, about -0.5% I expect we'll see maybe 200 more rigs out there by late spring, and more drilling. Too many of those rigs aren't ready to work, not to mention crews....

To: kollmhn who wrote (82198)	12/20/2000 6:37:14 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Kollmhn, <<<IPAA has recently estimated that NG production will grow by 1.9% in 2001 and that usage will increase 3.4%.>>> IPAA also said they expect an increase in domestic crude production next year, which has less chance of happening than me winning the lotto. In my opinion they have no credibility, but they are probably in the right ballpark despite their shortcomings. The usage increase of 3% minimum is guaranteed by the new power plants, I've also see higher numbers from reputable sources such as Simmons. Production increase is a crap shoot. I personally think the industry is going balls to the wall right now, and in effect accelerating the already fast depletion rates. Don't tell me producers aren't tempted to go with one or two orifice sizes bigger to achieve a harder drawdown with $9 gas - within the limits of physical damage to the wells (they hope). They are also letting the heavier ethanes, propanes, butantes, NGLs stay in the gas which boosts volume a little and reduces heating value a little - that can't last without big harm to chemical makers. The only thing for certain is that we are in a big bind, and won't be out anytime soon. Sharp