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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (123506)	12/20/2000 7:56:36 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Jim, re: "stock rage" You ought to TM that. Folks may be going to the malls, but they are not buying. Anyone with money is trying to figure out how to hold on to it, not spend it. And quit deluding yourself about a Bush election rally, you were wrong. I said a couple of times, Gush doesn't make any difference, "it's the economy, stupid". Then again, Deja Vu, I'll say it again, for the fifth time, we are near a bottom. John

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (123506)	12/21/2000 7:25:49 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Jim and Thread, RE: "the shopping center and mall parking lots are all full here" The other day, the highway was at a standstill, so I took a detour and drove through 3 Silicon Valley cities. I took advantage of this detour, and did a "spot check" on the local economy as I drove through. I noticed the following: - one large "For Rent" sign (the last time I saw that sign up on that particular complex, was about 4 years ago). - another "For Rent" sign at a major complex (they haven't had a "For Rent" sign up for 2 or 3 years) - a couple of "For Lease" signs up in office complexes - a "For Sale" sign on a house (the first time I've seen a "for sale" sign on a house in a very long time) - the number of "For Rent", "For Lease", and "For Sale" signs are greater than I've seen in two to three years, however, this number can't even come close to the high number of "For Rent - Get first month free", "For Lease" and "For Sale" signs in the early 90's. Today, there are only a handful of these signs - almost none - so this doesn't indicate a recession. However, I feel that we'll start seeing signs after Christmas. - the cars on the road look very new (but even in the early 90's, the cars in Silicon Valley looked new) - many more luxury cars like the Lexus and BMWs than there were in the early 90's - demographics have shifted up That's the end of that particular trip. I also did some shopping recently at the local mall and noticed the following: - the local retailers are slashing prices much more than last year. In fact, over the past year or two, prices were going up and up. This year, the prices seemed lower than last year. - "luxury" clothing is still popular (i.e. leather is still very fashionable) - when I was at the mall, I noticed that most people were older than me. That's not how it was last year. It gave me the feeling that older folks were out in larger numbers because they have already paid for their mortgages through stock, and so aren't bothered about the stock market. Demographically, older folks in Silicon Valley seem well off. I saw this age group out in large numbers - as if there was no stock market drop. They were also taking advantage of the great sales. I also saw a lot of folks in the NCG age group (as if stock isn't a part of their personal income and their only concern is the unemployment rate, which is currently a non-issue). I didn't see the folks in my age group out in large numbers, as I did last year (at the particular mall I shopped at), and those I did see looked a bit strained (babies in tow, probably hefty mortgages to pay.) Many of the older folks and the NCGs I saw sort of had that same carefree look about themselves. Overall, it doesn't look like a recession (at the moment), just a more rational, slowing economy. I'll be curious to see what the folks in my age group do with their mortgages come summer time - folks who have just started out on their mortgages and who have nothing to really lose by selling their homes now, and everything to gain by reducing their level of risk. I bet we see more houses go up for sale. However, I haven't heard one contact mention they know someone who has been laid off. During the recession, everyone knew someone who got laid off - a lot of folks were laid off. We're not even close to a recession where company after company is laying people off. In fact, the labor pool is still very tight, with salaries still showing some slight pressures. Business costs are still increasing (payroll). However, office leases have dropped in price, rentals are softening, and housing prices have stopped accelerating. This economy is weird. Some things are headed up (as they would in an inflation-like economy), while other things are going down (as they would in a recession-like economy). Inflation+Recession economy? What exactly is staginflation? Even though the IPOs are on hold (for the most part), the venture capital money seems to be flowing into the market at a healthy rate (anyone know how to check the most current figures? I wish the RedHerring had a chart on their home page for this type of current, quick-and-fast-to-read needed info). It seems like the VCs shifted sectors, from dotcoms to biotech. Networking, wireless, and semiconductors are still getting funded. Even though things look okay now, my concern is, how much will the large companies scale back their annual spending plans as everyone prepares for a down cycle (assuming they are)? This type of scaling-back in capital spending wouldn't become visible until next year and would be more of an issue than a simple adjustment of "irrational exuberance" in the stock market. We've entered a down cycle and the question I'm wondering is: how much scaling back in spending will the large companies do - because I think that's the real measure of what's to come. Regards, Amy J