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To: Amy J who wrote (123550)	12/21/2000 8:19:41 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Amy,<<<We've entered a down cycle and the question I'm wondering is: how much scaling back in spending will the large companies do - because I think that's the real measure of what's to come.>>> The more things change, the more they stay the same. A lot of this economic trend stuff (over the short term) is about self fulfilling prophecies. We are talking ourselves into a recession. Many of the CEO's are talking about tight money supply, are hoarding their cash (those with cash), and preparing for a slow down lasting a year or more. But who knows how these trends snowball and get out of hand. Even in the best of times, there are a lot of negative things that go on in life, but now all negative citings only add fuel to the fire. Added to this, is that AG and the President-Elect don't have common ground. They don't even speak the same language. But, both think they can manage the economy . That is dangerous stuff. The short term trend is definitely downward. But the longer term trend is definitely upward. The technology genie is out of the box. People around the globe are going to use technology to fight their way out of poverty. If this downtrend does not kill us, we will definitely come out of it stronger than ever. Mary

To: Amy J who wrote (123550)	12/21/2000 10:47:37 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

We've entered a down cycle and the question I'm wondering is: how much scaling back in spending will the large companies do - because I think that's the real measure of what's to come. Hi Amy, good, thoughtful posts today, as always. The San Jose Merc business section has an article this morning saying HP has put on a 3 month salary freeze. When I saw the headline I thought I'd be seeing a lot more than that. Just an indicator though of the slowdown. As for houses for sale, I always see some, but not a lot around here. Holiday season is a slow turnover time. April-May is the hottest, but I'll be keeping an eye out right after the holidays, to try to spot any trend. As I recall, the biggest turndown for housing in the SC Valley, at least in my time here, was after the '89 earthquake, and recessions in 90, 92 and 94. Even then, prices only backed off 20 - 30% from the highs of the late 80s. They were kind of flat until about 96, when they started a parabolic rise. We'll see this time. www0.mercurycenter.com Tony