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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (42657)	12/20/2000 6:21:00 PM
From: OX	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

stoopid SPX facts... using closing values, SPX has just deviated (-11.9%) from it's 200MA greater than its previous large % deviation on 10/8/98 (-10.1%). on the upside, this year, SPX close got as high as +11.5% above it's 200dma on 3/23/00. and was highest (in modern time :-) as +17.1% on 4/12/99.

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (42657)	12/20/2000 10:04:24 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

So comes the first pattern day, which means I won't really know until we get into the trading today. But that has never stopped me before and won't stop me now! :) I expect an early high point around 9:50, give or take about 15 minutes. That will drop to a low point around 10:20, followed by a run to 14:40, or the close. In one case the low came late at 14:20, but it ran nicely to the close from there. In the case of the two patterns that had the early low, the morning high was broken by 12:00, so if that is not the case tomorrow, expect the late low around 14:20. Also, on the late day low pattern, it tried to bounce at 10:30, but was immediately smacked lower. So if we are setting new lows at 10:40, expect the late day low as well, with the lack of a new intraday high by 12:00 as being the clincher. Looking for a V shaped day or a one way up. Potential for a tail if there is a one way up, as that pattern exhibited the high at 14:40 and dropped from there. The V shapes ran to the close. Don't think I will play early, but will be looking for a long at 10:20. If that doesn't materialize under my scenario above, I will be short by 10:40, cognizant of a potential bounce, but looking for the ultimate low around 14:30 and a long there to the close. If the 10:20 long materializes, I will look to hold that till 14:30 or the close roughly speaking of course. So basically one or two good trades tomorrow.