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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve in socal who wrote (14031)	12/21/2000 2:10:19 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18928

Hi Steve, The IW shift this week was really generated just from that one stock - gymboree. If we eliminated that one datapoint the IW would have actually dropped this week. Knowing that Gymboree's stock has since dropped quite a bit tells me that we will probably finally get the IW to LOW RISK values. The delays built into the IW's data (mainly by Value Line's data keeping) put the Speculation portion of the index about two weeks behind real time. This hasn't seemed to be a problem as the IW is more of a trend measure than anything else. Glad you liked the pics of the snow. We had about another 4-6" last night. I"m getting lean and mean with all this exercise. Looking forward to the official end of Tax Selling Season. Happy Holidays, tom@tundra.com

To: steve in socal who wrote (14031)	12/21/2000 8:34:09 PM
From: LemonHead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

socal, it was a year ago today that JZGalt (Dave Zawicki) made his last public post on SI. I just thought I would mark the event with a few words. confirmatoryanalysis.com This is from the archive of our daily conversations. Dave: Landis was easy money. Make sure you tell Eve that this isn't normally that simple. Keith: She knows, she has been watching me beat my head against the wall for three years. Dave: Tell her it is not as hard as what you were doing either. <grin> Keith: Okay. Are the monthly picks at CA going to continue? Dave: Not until I get better and that may be a long time. Sorry, those guys aren't up to managing a website and I don't have the enregy. Just checked out of hospital this afternoon and on IV antibiotics and a massive infection of abdomen. Been there before, but I dropped 13 lbs in past week. Long story. My only regret is that I didn't ever get to meet him in person. He was very special. Keith

To: steve in socal who wrote (14031)	12/22/2000 4:58:10 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18928

Hi SoCal, It occurred to me at this early point in what's officially WINTER, that a discussion was needed. The topic is: "What's in a Number?" For those of you in sunny Southern California, South Florida, Mexico, the Caribbean and certainly the other side of the Equator probably don't think about a drop of 4°F as being much of anything. After all, if you're out golfing and it's 84° and drops to 80°F you're not going to complain much. Even if the Swimming Pool drops from 82° to 78°you'll only notice that it's possibly a bit more refreshing than usual. Now, for those of us on the North Shore of the U.S. that same small increment of temperature shift is taken with a different perspective. When I arrived home last evening it was still a balmy 0.0°F. I don't mess around with Wind Chill, I just don't let more than about 2sq.in. of my body show to the world. Well, as I write, it's now -4°F without a cloud in the sky. Now, if I were out on a golf course and it dropped that same increment of 4° I'd probably ski back to the clubhouse and order up a Wisconsin antifreeze drink known as an Aubergut (3/4 brandy, 1/4 peppermint schnapps), take off the thirteen layers of outer-wear and just leave on my LL Bean Insulated Pants, Turtle Neck, Irish Wool Sweater, two pairs of socks and switch to some cozy insulated boots. At 0.0°F cross country skiing with no wind is a delight. At -4° it starts to lose its charm. In this brave new world of precision measurements we are now able to discern change by a much finer degree. I, for instance, have a digital thermometer from Radio Shack which is kind enough to give me the outdoor Temperature in degrees and tenths of a degree. Again, for Steve in SoCal, this may not be a useful feature as the difference between 84.4°F and 84°F isn't going to be a deciding factor between having the neighbors over for a bar-b-que or having them over for cold tuna salad. But here in Wisconsin, the difference between MINUS 4° and MINUS 4.4° can be the deciding factor between remaining in this Winter Wonderland and moving to the Caribbean for the rest of one's remaining days! So, I usually don't bother to report the decimals, just round up or down to the nearest degree. Why scare myself with some minor digits? As interesting as all of this is, you may have missed the point as to the relationship between temperature and investing. See, for Steve in sunny Calif. seeing a shift from 84° to 80°F really is just a two percent movement. For me in Wisconsin, from 0.0° to -4° is infinite!!! From 84° to 84.4° is a mere 0.2% shift. From -4° to -4.4°F is a TEN PERCENT SHIFT! This is much like the NASDAQ Composite Index. Back in the good old days last March, if the NASDAQ slipped 50 points from 5050 to 5000 it was only a drop of about 1.0%. CNBC was almost embarrassed to report such a trivial move! However, as we rapidly approach NASDAQ 500, that same 50 point shift works out to be TEN PERCENT of what remains. Now we must sit up and take notice. CNBC personalities are using every bit of composure to no scream *CRASH* at the top of their lungs and in four part harmony! So, it's not the numbers themselves, it's their relationship. The same incremental move can be the difference between good relations and very bad ones! Now, the real question is, "Can the NASDAQ actually go to a Minus 4?" Happy Holidays Everyone, the worst is almost over. The shortest day of the year has just past and although winter isn't over, things will start to get brighter as we head towards spring. Best regards, Tom

To: steve in socal who wrote (14031)	1/1/2001 11:49:01 PM
From: LemonHead	Respond to of 18928

Hi Socal, OT Just wanted to end the first day of the New Year on a Song. Creed - With Arms Wide Open *With Arms Wide Open* Well I just heard the news today It seems my life is going to change I close my eyes, begin to pray Then tears of joy stream down my face With arms wide open Under the sunlight Welcome to this place I'll show you everything With arms wide open With arms wide open Well I don't know if I'm ready To be the man I have to be I'll take a breath, I’ll take her by my side We stand in awe, we've created life With arms wide open Under the sunlight Welcome to this place I'll show you everything With arms wide open Now everything has changed I'll show you love I'll show you everything With arms wide open With arms wide open I'll show you everything, Oh yeah… With arms wide open wide open... <lead> If I had just one wish Only one demand I hope he's not like me I hope he understands That he can take this life And hold it by the hand And he can greet the world With arms wide open... With arms wide open Under the sunlight Welcome to this place I'll show you everything With arms wide open Now everything has changed I'll show you love I'll show you everything With arms wide open With arms wide open I'll show you everything Oh yeah… With arms wide open wide open………. Written by Tremonti/Stapp Published by Tremonti/Stapp Music (Adm. by Dwight Frye Music, Inc.)/Dwight Frye Music, Inc. (BMI) Produced, Engineered & by John Kurzweg Mixed by Kirk Kelsey Now I know what the song means, but I feel that you could just about apply it to the birth and growth of anything. Just reminds me of this BB and our founder. Keith PS - Time to fund those IRA's.