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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (82270)	12/21/2000 1:02:22 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

>> The tech long term outlook looks as good as ever with the exception of some internet models which had no barrier to entry and which had no revenue capability built into them. << Just skimmed your post. Will try to read it more later, but I STRONGLY disagree with the above statement. The earnings warnings we've seen so far are just the TIP of the iceberg. In my mind everything is connected. Remember early cycle/late cycle in the patch? Same analogy applies to the tech warnings imho. We've only seen 2 quarters of this are we are still trying to figure out how much the economy will slow (this won't be known for at least another 3-9 months at the earliest). Case in point VTSS hasn't warned yet, but they sell to LU which sells to the telecoms which are cutting back on spending, etc, etc. Now we've seen the WCOM and T's warn. We've seen LU and NT warn, but many of the optics plays have not. Also when companies start to warn it can take as much as a year or more to turn things around and fully factor in all the slowing. It's very rare that a company can warn in one quarter and accurately forecast the remainder of the year. I speculate that given the degree of the Nasdaq correction that no one has a clue where and when the ultimate bottom will be. As such I'm more interested in finding a bottom that I can trade. It'll be found through sentiment and technicals more than valuation (at least on this go around). Sorry if this sounds like gibberish...it's late and I'm going to bed.

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (82270)	12/21/2000 9:00:08 AM
From: hitsoft17	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

cnyndwllr, Nice assessment. My adder would be this....... One thing that has always been present in any serious "for real" downturn/recession is a building fear in people that they will lose their jobs. When this starts to take hold it sets in motion a downward spiraling sequence of events that the FED or noone else can stop. When this happens there is severe impact on the retailers, financials, housing, autos, and virtually everything else. I have been watching and I really don't see that starting to happen yet. Anyone who has been Christmas shopping knows that the consumer is NOT sitting home worried about his/her job!! I have a friend that manages a general retail store for a large chain and indicates that the store is running 12% over last year at Christmas. Also I can absolutely assure you that the techs that have been hit so hard are hiring to beat the band. They literally can't bring people in fast enough. CSCO, NT, DELL are examples. I would add that housing starts are accelerating, not slowing and mortgage rates should keep it that way for a while. ( BTW I really like LOW here) How about the rest of you? I will really start to worry when we see a 10 page cover story about all the folks that have been layed off in Businessweek ( of course that will be too late). I can't detect that it is coming anytime soon. Hopefully the FOMC will get a move on before serious job concerns start. By the way, I support JimL's thoughts on gold and would add that fear will drive the price more than supply and demand if the NG mess gets any deeper. Hitsoft17

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (82270)	12/21/2000 9:37:25 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 95453

Cinderella Ed, "One's first step in wisdom is to question everything - and one's last is to come to terms with everything." -Georg Christoph Lichtenberg Just awakening here on the left coast, will add more incomprehensible bromides, a Zen koan perhaps, to the mix later. I'm thinking of the "what is the sound of one hand clapping?" idea in terms of "what is the price of one stock falling (if there is no one but the MM to make a bid)?" Tout a l'heure (that would be "toodle-loo" to Dabum and any other jarheads out there). Kb