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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eichler who wrote (64964)	12/21/2000 6:20:01 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

moon guy, sew calls it a long finger pointing up (hope not the middle finger -lol-) 207.61.23.99 it somewhat similar to the candle that kicked this mess off around the beginning of sept, except upside down and a longer shadow, need a rally tomorrow to confirm this as a reversal pattern. b

To: eichler who wrote (64964)	12/21/2000 6:45:41 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I'd call it - daily COMP today - more of an inverted hammer than a spinning top... which, with confirmation, could signal a bottom reversal... Unfortunately, in combination with yesterday today also makes for an "in neck" formation (close slightly above big ugly yesterday's close - not at all dojistical, but I see the point about 6 billion shares going nowhere). If today's low doesn't hold firm, the downtrend would be considered ominously intact - i.e., we'd be expected very likely to move lower with dispatch. In accordance with today's theme, that would be the moment when the natives have broken up the encircled wagons, and have started shorting the defenders, but Audie Murphy, bravely ignoring the arrow in his thigh, leaps on a horse with his love interest and rides hard toward the hills. Personally, I wouldn't even start getting confident on the long side until the gap is closed and the downtrend-line from the 12/13 intermediate high is broken. But that one's so steep, at a minimum sidling through it fairly soon would seem inevitable. Sure, you have to crawl before you can walk, but even starting to make significant impact on the downtrend from the pre-Labor Day high would still look like a major project - I draw it through pre-Labor Day / Election Day / Supreme Court Day, and estimate it would be passing through the middle 2900s today. Falling out the bottom of the in-neck low (today) would also look to me like falling out the bottom of the bearish-enough post-Labor Day trading channel... Needless to say, I would have a hard time interpreting that as what you'd call a positive for price action on the Nasdaq.

To: eichler who wrote (64964)	12/21/2000 8:29:34 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

But Eichler, it did not hit bottom on April 17, that was a sucker rally, the interim bottom was May 28 and whomever bought the April 17th rally and did not bail before the beginning of May, was devastated on that May bottom. Then we had a nice 50% or so rally in the Naz, but you knew it was a fakehead because that rally never got real solid buying (like an extremely positive tic, for instance). And while, like many here, I still expect a "Santa Claus" rally to start shortly (I have next Tuesday as a potential buying day), I still do not expect this rally to go further than the first or second week in January. George is right, as long as the "Generals" (the Dow stocks) are still showing confidence, they have not been defeated. I believe that we will need to get very close to 9000 (on the Dow) or even breach this on the next down leg of this bear. Even then, don't count on a Fed interest rate reduction (some hope for late January, I think they'll stretch to March) to induce much more than another bear market rally. Right now, I still have lows in late February, lower lows in August and possibly even lower lows (or a double bottom) in October. This winter may extend until next Autumn, IMTO. Zeev