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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26827)	12/21/2000 6:56:13 PM
From: Voltaire	Respond to of 65232

We were wrong on a delayed basis as a result of intervening variables we could not foresee! I'm not proud. We must now go forward with our beliefs and not look back with regret. Lot of money to be made out there, but not if we trade with fear. I am beginning to believe more money can be made by simply buying a quality stock and trading every rally on an ascending scale for the next quarter or two while holding one's on favorite position. I forget the stock and just trade it on the Naz futures. v

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26827)	12/21/2000 7:12:53 PM
From: Ex-INTCfan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

JW, I think we are going through a natural chain of events here. It's as simple as this - the market got way too damned high back in February -- by any measure. It HAD to come down, and it had to come down without the disruption of creating the mother of all down days. All the current so-called news being reported about rate cuts (or not), earnings (or not), recession (or not), punched (or dimpled) is being used as an excuse to ratchet things down where they belong so that everyone can save face. Thus, the analysts can say "oh, our predictions for higher prices would have worked out if not for {insert phrase of your choice} - higher oil prices, - slowing economy, - Fed slow to act, - Uncertainty over the election. I do think the houses have been working off inventory all year. Must be a very difficult thing to do with everything so overvalued before. They did it in such a way as to make sure the little guy always had hope that we were just having a little correction -- maybe that's why we didn't have a gigantic crash that would have gotten this whole thing over with quickly. Of course, this is pure speculation. But, if it is correct, then the question becomes "what signs will there be that this is over?" I have this sneaking suspicion that the big downdraft everyone is calling for will not occur, and that will be the tell. At that point the houses will already have unloaded what they wanted to unload, and the only downward pressure will be from the retail investor. They (we?) then will watch in surprise as the market climbs from the abyss without having gone through its obligatory one-day crash. INTCfan

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26827)	12/21/2000 7:44:30 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi Jim, >"you mention the Houses every time Porchers lose money it aint that simple"<< You got that right....... There are many reasons for that & the houses play a part in it..... In any event, the houses can't be ignored either. It is an important part of understanding the psychology of the market IMVHO. >>"we have misread the economy, period or else we have not coordinated trading with economic expectations I thought all summer long climax econ low in Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb "<< You certainly got that part right...... Actually, you have made several prescient calls about the economy. Unfortunately, we did not take heed to them. How I wish I had printed those posts & marked my calendar. I know I would be much better off if I had. Same goes for a few of your TA calls Jim..... QCOM swings in the fall/winter 1999..... the Elliot wave top in the market for EOY 1999 time frame you made in summer/fall of 1999...... the breakdown of QCOM at $105 this spring.... to name a few. Jim, this may be a bit of left brain & right brain thinking that has prioritized these issues differently. IMVHO, the houses & the economy are BOTH important aspects to successful investing. We need to understand them along with serious DD on individual stocks..... even understanding some TA too..... It's all part of forming an overall investment strategy that suits our personal styles. Neither of you are wrong. You are both right IMO. I say let's discuss the pro's & con's of all of these strategies on the porch & let us each decide what is best for our own individual styles. BWTFDIK anyway?? Ö¿Ö