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To: gdichaz who wrote (36893)	12/21/2000 10:03:58 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Guess who picked up a new business partner today that hopes to do an additional $10 billion in applications software business. Siebel did. Huh? Microsoft announced the purchase of Great Plains Software. Great Plains is a significant reseller of Siebel's software to mid-sized companies. I had a conversation with a friend earlier today who was as bewildered as I was about why Microsoft would be interested in buying such a small applications business. We got our answer when I read the Fool news. "David Vaskevitch, senior vice president for Microsoft's Business Applications division, said 'We see this as our next major business, providing the software for small and medium businesses to run themselves.' He added that 'We see the opportunity for at least an Office-sized business here,' with 'on the order of about $10 billion a year' for Microsoft." $10 billion! At Great Plains's respectable 40% rate of growth over the last five years, it'll take the company more than 30 years to get to $10 billion. Clearly, Softie isn't planning on waiting for Great Plains to get to $10 billion on its own. Anyone wanna bet there's gonna be some more consolidation in the mid-tier software distribution market? Maybe one way to get there is to give Wintel a new look. Maybe all those server farms Intel has in the works are gonna be pushing Microsoft's applications to the mid-tier and small business market. Right outta Value Chain 101? Maybe. Maybe not. Still, I've gotta be skeptical about Microsoft's investment in such a small applications company. It kinda makes you wonder if they've ever thought of buying Siebel or i2 or ... well, you get the point. Given the scrutiny they're under by the feds, buying a company with less than a quarter of a million dollars in annual sales probably passes muster more easily than buying a big, successful company. --Mike Buckley

To: gdichaz who wrote (36893)	12/26/2000 9:48:49 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2 << there is a great divide between those who think voice is key and those who expect data to be key >> For purposes of discussion on this thread I think we need to be on the look out for a new period of hypergrowth (a new tornado) within mobile wireless telephony, that will center around the migration of voice services to voice and data services. There is much evidence to support the fact that a new tornado is imminent: * SMS messaging is approaching 10 billion messages per month. This is a 10 fold increase in 12 months. * Fully 42% of Japan's 57 million mobile wireless subscribers take advantage of Internet Provider Services (wireless web) using mobile wireless. * Both GPRS and 1xMC launched commercially in 2000. * Over 60 carriers are contracted to commence packet based "always on" second generation (voice and) data services in 2001. * Over 25 carriers have commercially launched GPRS networks or are readying their installed networks for commercial launch. * Initial 3rd generation services will trial and debug in 2001. * There is a major focus within the GSM & TDMA community on interoperability and voice and data roaming, and for purposes of this discussion, the Global Roaming Exchange (GRX) becomes very important. * Next year will see a proliferation of phones (Wireless Interface Devices or WIDs) that combine the functionality of a traditional handset and PDA, and WAP will be only one method of viewing web content. << All of the alphabet soup and the various standards bodies cause confusion, but the mixture of current and "new" spectrum is an even greater cause of confusion IMO >> Things have really become simplified this year, IMO. * CDMA carriers representing some 80 million subscribers are evolving 2nd & 3rd generation services in 3GPP2. * GSM & TDMA carriers representing some 480 million subscribers are evolving 2nd & 3rd generation services in 3GPP2. * OHG is making sure that CDMA MC is harmonized with CDMA DS and CDMA TD. * Traditional country and region specific SDO's (in 3GPP) are more focused on regulatory matters than on technical matters. << The most practical way to approach what is happening now and will happen in the next couple of years is to examine what is going on in current spectrum >> I feel that it is somewhat difficult to segregate discussions of mobile wireless voice and data services by current and new spectrum, even though about 12 to 18 months separates the general deployment of data services in current v. 3G IMT-2000 spectrum. Infrastructure for W-CDMA for IMT-2000 spectrum will start to ship in 2001, and licenses (100+) will continue to be awarded for IMT-2000 services while 2.5G services (GPRS & 1xMC) roll out. Take Vodafone as just one of several carrier examples, and take the UK which is just one of several countries they operate in. They are currently offering circuit switched voice and data services countrywide using GSM. They will commence offering packet switched data services shortly using GPRS in the same spectrum. 12 to 18 months later they will begin offering third generation services on a UMTS network in IMT-2000 spectrum. UMTS handsets will allow their users to obtain all GSM & GPRS voice and data services in areas where their is no UMTS coverage (whether in the UK or elsewhere). All of this made possible by a set of standards that is highly focused on global roaming of both voice and data and interoperability << data is the future of wireless ... CDMA and HDR in all their flavors seem to be key to the future. >> I happen to agree that data is the future of wireless. CDMA will most definitely eventually predominate, but that will happen in the second half of this decade, not the first. In 2005 GSM/GPRS will be the predominant platform deployed for voice and data services. << Rather than focusing on a Business Week report, I would suggest that an intelligent discussion of GSM/GPRS vs CDMA 1x and HDR (1xEV) might be more useful. >> I'm not exactly sure how to begin an "intelligent discussion" of GSM/GPRS vs CDMA 1x and HDR (1xEV). GSM/GPRS is (was) something of a "foreign" thing, for us Americans. That changed abruptly in a manner that Alan Toffler would call "Future Shock", when AWS recently announced their technology flip. Next year VoiceStream, Cingular, Microcell, and AWS will all introduce GPRS service on our shores, and South of the Border GPRS will also be introduced in Mexico. For the moment, takeup of 1xRTT seems to be confined to upgrades by existing cdmaOne operators, and 1xEV has only four network supporters worldwide (KTF, KDDI, Verizon, and Sprint PCS). 1xEV-DV is VERY promising technology. It is a much better mousetrap than GPRS from the point of view of both data transmission rates and efficiency. 1xEV-DV is concept, however, at the moment. It will not complete standardization until late next year, and we are then 18 months or more away from general deployment. The first question is whether or not it will be adopted in existing spectrum, by any operators outside of the handful that comprise the membership of 3GPP2. The second question is whether or not it will provide all of the interoperability required by a GSM operator. The third question will be what it will cost to implement, relative to its alternatives. A fourth question is whether or not the 3GPP community will accept any technology architecture that is proprietary even if it is open and proprietary. The battle may be between 1x-EV-DV and EDGE initially. The battle may then be between 1x-EV-DV and wideband CDMA when current spectrum and 3G IMT-2000 spectrum when current spectrum opens up to IMT-2000 services later in the decade. 1x-EV-DV initially may have its best shot in China. I am of the opinion that it will not be adopted outside the small group of CDMA operators until and unless CDG commences participation in 3GPP. For the short hall the voice and data tornado commences with GPRS, then moves on more or less concurrently to wideband cdma and 1x & HDR are wild cards. At this juncture, there appears to be no turning back GPRS or wideband CDMA. Unfortunately the wireless voice and data tornado begins with a lot of GPRS with a little bit of narrowband cdma thrown in. - Eric -