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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (2515)	12/26/2000 10:55:52 AM
From: Joe Wagner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4808

Raymond, it will be interesting to see if the supply of oil catches up and exceeds demand, so that even if OPEC cuts production, prices will weaken for some time. I think the price of oil was higher over the last couple months, because of a supply demand imbalance and uncertainty over Israel and the U.S Presidential race, and, since supplies were never disrupted, but instead increased, the extended price spike we experienced could actually have helped to start an oversupply situation that will become apparent as we move into the new year, eventually driving the price back down more than it would have. A weakening economy also helps to do this. If it happens it would be a great environment for making major cuts in interest rates. That's what I am hoping for. Only time will tell. Joe