Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: d who wrote (36934)	12/23/2000 5:57:24 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

3. Timing by Bob Brinker's Marketimer. Though some say "It's impossible", Bob does it better than most. He's rated number 2 by Hulbert. His newsletter costs only $185 per year. He got me mostly out of market in January. Now we're heavily into QQQ for a countertrend rally. The question is this: "Did Brinker's call to investors when he signaled it was time to get back into QQQ cost more or less than the annual newsletter subscription fee?" I don't know when his call was, but I was somewhat aware of it simply because my brother-in-law follows Brinker. I would be curious as to when the exact date of his suggestion to sell the QQQ was. What price was the QQQ trading at that time? If his call to buy was November 1, then his subscribers got back into the QQQ at $81 a share only to see it fall to a low of $54.75 before rebounding yesterday to $60.50. Using the closing figure of $60.50 Friday, that was a loss of 25%. If one had been holding the QQQ on the first trading day of 2000, the price closed at $94.75. If his call was to sell on the last day of April to avoid that May 1 to October 31 time period you referenced from his newsletter, then that means investors would have been selling between $92.125 and $94.75 on that last day in April. Once again, I don't know when his call to sell was. Hence, my post is full of assumptions. They then would have capital gains to contend with and pay for the tax year 2000. If we use the closing price of $94.75 on April 28th and Friday's closing price of $60.50, we see a loss of 36% which Brinker would have saved us if those were his timing call dates. If so, Brinker's following will be paying capital gains taxes at various rates depending on income and state tax as well as having suffered a recent 25% loss on top of that. Once again, I don't know when the purchase or sale price was suggested by Brinker of the QQQ, so I can't criticize the timing strategy he had in his newsletter. In addition, I don't know his track record of market timing, but I was curious if you felt that sale and repurchase of the QQQ after taxes as well as the recent 25% loss since November 1 justified the annual subscription fee? BB