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To: Allen Benn who wrote (8956)	12/22/2000 8:20:59 PM
From: Bala Vasireddi	Respond to of 10309

This is a great site!! Thanks to Allen and Peter for setting it up. However I have one question and am surprised nobody brought it up yet. Q: Is this a WIND sponsored site? I guess not. Right? If the answer is NO: there should be a bold disclaimer at the top saying so. Having WIND's logo there without any explanation could potentially cause confusion that these numbers are blessed by WIND somehow. I just don't want anybody [most of all WIND] to get into trouble. I don't work for WIND. I am just a happy and hopeful investor in WIND. Thanks and Wish you all a merry Christmas and new year. -Bala

To: Allen Benn who wrote (8956)	12/22/2000 9:01:20 PM
From: James Connolly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Allen and others. The wireless Internet lily pond jumps out at me as deserving some discussion. By FY 2005 the royalty income from the wireless Internet could make up 40% of the total lily pond royalty income. In order for this to happen the royalty income will need to increase from roughly $1 million this year to $688 million in FY 2005. net-gain.com Looking at the numbers in the spreadsheet 3 key factors are required to drive this. 1. Intel needs to get to a 30% market share by FY 2005. This seems possible to me given that Intel has all the right technologies like XScale, Flash memory and now DSP. It's possible it might produce a highly integrated single chip solution at some point. It also has huge production capacity and the motivation to succeed given that PC sales are slowing. 2. WIND needs to be in about 50+% of these Intel devices. We know that WIND and Intel have an XScale CoE so it's fare to say that WIND should be in some XScale devices. What do others think of the 50% number ? What will drive it to 50%. 3. WIND needs to be in about 30% of non-Intel wireless Internet devices. WIND appears to be working with Motorola on this. We know this for sure because it was mentioned in one the PR's a while back. This area brings up a question. To succeed in this area does WIND need some kind of deal with QCOM ? Regards JC. PS. Happy X-mas to all.

To: Allen Benn who wrote (8956)	12/23/2000 8:13:45 PM
From: peter grossman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10309

I've gotten a number of PMs about the lily pond site. To clarify, these are Allen's spreadsheets; he should get the credit. The idea is to jumpstart the thread to refine ideas and assumptions over time to provide analytical research we can't expect from either the company or analysts. We might now think about a group think methodology to agree on how we change the numbers. Allen has provided a super framework. I'll maintain the site if you want, but I cannot promise any faster turnaround than this first effort. OTOH, I don't expect frequent changes. Happy Holidays! -Peter

To: Allen Benn who wrote (8956)	12/25/2000 12:54:52 PM
From: Mkilloran	Respond to of 10309

Allen...here's a few hundred million settop boxes that can be added to the Lily Pond techweb.com Chinese Government Plans For Digital TV (08/30/00, 12:44 p.m. ET) By Sunray Liu, EE Times The head of China's State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television (Sarft) is drafting a five-year plan for a timetable and standard for digital TV. It plans to publish its HDTV specification in 2003 and end analog TV broadcasts by 2010. Industry experts predict that the evolution of digital TV in China could generate a $12.5 billion market. Proponents of competing U.S. and European standards for digital TV broadcasts have been eyeing the potentially huge Chinese market and trying to determine the government's transmission standard. The Chinese government showcased its digital TV technology by broadcasting its 50th anniversary celebration last October. Since then, it has issued nationwide digital satellite TV, cable TV, and digital studio standards. "Digital technology will be a revolutionary advance for China's TV and radio industry," said vice minister of Sarft Haitao Zhang. "It's a new growth point for the industry." The HDTV timetable drafted by Sarft will give a detailed evolution strategy for introducing digital TV services across China covering production, broadcasting, terrestrial communications, and transmission via broadcast, cable TV, and satellite infrastructure. The government is also making plans for frequency spectrum allocations and other technical requirements for HDTV broadcasting. China's State Planning and Development Committee authorized Sarft to establish a government terrestrial HDTV test laboratory backed by the central government -- a fact that gives the project greater urgency. The lab will test transmission standards from Japan, North America, and Europe and then draft the technical specifications for China's HDTV services. Zhang said that all three formats will affect China's HDTV standard in different ways but that Sarft will focus on customizing its own systems to benefit China's digital TV network. Sarft earlier formed an HDTV standards group, which has concluded the framework for the Chinese standard. The standards group is testing the three terrestrial formats developed for use in the major world markets and will submit the final test report to China's State Council in October. The report is expected to cover preparations for implementing the architecture for the Chinese digital TV standard. After reviewing the Sarft report, the government is scheduled to issue the official standard in 2003. An expert said the detailed preparations and investigations are essential to the success of the new standard. "The industry in our country still needs a period for preparation," he said. Zhang agreed, adding, "We shall start our digital TV industry overall through the driving forces of satellite and cable TV." China is setting up trial platforms for HDTV and standard-definition TV (SDTV). Some cities will begin receiving DTV broadcasts through cable and satellite networks. The State Planning and Development Committee selected Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen as sites for R&D as well as for developing a manufacturing infrastructure. Shenzhen, near Hong Kong, will begin trial HDTV broadcasts later this year. After completing construction on a tower that will cover the areas around Canton and Hong Kong in southern China, the Shenzhen station will broadcast 12 hours of HDTV programming during the China High Technology Fair in November. . The Shenzhen station will follow up with two to three hours of HDTV programming during the national holidays and is slated to begin three to five hours a day of regular HDTV broadcasting late in the year. And by 2005 the Shenzhen station is expected to halt analog broadcasting and replace it with HDTV and SDTV programming. The U.S. had planned to end analog broadcasts by 2006, but many observers believe the deadline will be delayed by a long-running dispute over a modulation scheme. To reach its goals, Sarft is speeding the digitalization of its TV broadcast center and is enhancing the national cable TV network. The digital cable TV network is expected to become a mainstay of China's HDTV industry and Sarft plans to implement networked program exchanges and communications. Currently, nearly 80 million Chinese households receive cable signals out of an estimated 326 million households with TVs. Sarft hopes to expand the total to 150 million households with cable by 2005 and 200 million by 2010. Interactive network technologies and digital cable TV boxes are expected to become mainstream consumer devices in China over the next decade, analysts said. Related Stories: HDTV Picture Is Still Quite Fuzzy Plea To Alter DTV Spec Goes To Congress Groupware Gang Tackles Collaboration Intel: No Royalties On New Spec Delayed Raises, Miscues Torpedo HP Morale Yahoo! Appeals French Ban On Nazi Auctions FCC Armed With Low-Power FM Licenses Print this story Send as e-mail What would you pay to stay on top of the IT Industry? How about nothing? Daily Update Text HTML More Newsletters Define an IT Term Technology Network Integrators Have It Good For VCs, It's Back To The Future Lucent's Schacht On Company Downgrade

To: Allen Benn who wrote (8956)	12/25/2000 1:01:44 PM
From: Mkilloran	Respond to of 10309

Allen and Peter..here's a survey that's projecting 350 million settop boxes by 2006... I'am expecting 1 billion by 2012... ----------------------------------------------- Digital TV Market Worth $100 Billion By 2005 By Michael Bartlett, Newsbytes BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS, U.S.A., 14 Dec 2000, 12:33 AM CST In the opening scene of the 1967 movie ''The Graduate,'' a family friend tells Dustin Hoffman's character Benjamin Braddock there is a great future in ''plastics.'' If that movie were made today, perhaps the famous line would be ''I have two words for you: digital TV.'' A new Ovum study has found that digital television connections will skyrocket from 62 million in 2001 to 350 million in 2006, creating opportunities for television commerce (t-commerce) and interactive services. The study said that t-commerce revenues from digital connections will be worth $45 billion by 2005, and pay-TV, gaming, education and information will bring in more than $60 billion. The term ''convergence'' has been used frequently in recent years to describe the gravitation of entertainment content such as TV shows or motion pictures to the Internet. Ovum said that the digitization of broadcasting transmission ''breaks down the barriers between the Internet, traditionally a telecommunications domain, and the traditional media-oriented television sector.'' Ovum foresees a future in which consumers will be able to access interactive services either through television sets or personal computers. TVs will be used for sending and receiving e-mail, Web surfing, e-commerce and games, while PCs will receive entertainment, the company said. The burgeoning market will be fought over by telecommunications companies and TV broadcasters, Ovum predicted. This competition will center on increasing viewer numbers to maximize advertising revenue, encouraging spending on e-commerce, and forming alliances to deliver movies, shows and video games. In the not too distant future, Ovum said, television will compete with the Internet in delivering the services people presently get over the Web, and the Internet will rival television in information, entertainment, and educational video and audio services. More information on Ovum is available online at ovum.com . Reported by Newsbytes.com, newsbytes.com . (20001214/ Press Contact: Kathleen Jeanty, Ovum, 781-224-1321 /WIRES TOP, ONLINE, BUSINESS/DIGITALTV/PHOTO) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- << Previous Message Next Message >>

To: Allen Benn who wrote (8956)	1/12/2001 1:56:51 PM
From: Carpe per Diem	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Allen, this question from Peter was asked when the Lily Pond was first introduced back mid-December, your reply is below, but I still have questions re: base and incremental royalties, and what the Lily Pond actually represents. Question from Peter - "I therefore assume that the combined lily pond royalties are only those royalties over and above the royalties from WIND's traditional business." Your answer - "You are correct. The lily ponds, AS PRESENTED, only represent a portion of WIND’s current royalty business. What you don’t see yet is how the lily pond model is blended into a forecasting model for WIND as a whole. That will come later, once we, as a group, get the lily pond model shaped up." Allen, analysts are forecasting EPS of .74 in FY02, to what extent do you think analysts are factoring in the incremental royalties as projected in the Lily Pond? Or, are the Lily Pond royalties purely incremental, and analysts are projecting off base WIND royalties and other income only? I don't mean to hurry your forecasting model along, however it is plainly obvious, a serious inflection point in revenue and profitability could occur in FY02 if the Lily Pond royalties are purely incremental. Incremental royalty income would flow largely unfettered into earnings. $70 million in incremental royalties represents another .75 -.80 in earnings. Seems too good to be true, it seems to me analysts must have some of this number built into their forecast. Any insight would be most appreciated. Regards, Rinks