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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yaacov who wrote (39174)	12/23/2000 11:59:56 AM
From: Nancywaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

> If the Feds cut the rates in Jan. then this market is has one way to go, up! Not necessarilly so. It could take several rate cuts for that (though there will be a pop).

To: Yaacov who wrote (39174)	12/23/2000 12:08:18 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

Re: "...belief that the worst is behind us" and "Everybody has warned" - I just read on the MITA thread that 40% of earnings warnings come AFTER 31 Dec so we are barely half done with the bad news. Recall also that most of your big tech Gorillas are late in the reporting period. CSCO anyone? <g> Re: "...rate cuts lie ahead" First let me say that anyone not calling this a bear market is fooling themselves. On that note, Never in recorded history has a bear market ended at the first rate cut. There has ALWAYS been a lower low after the first cut and we haven't even had the cut yet, only rumors of one. Yes, I agree we will get one but how big, and when? Sure this time could be different but that sentence has been used with the predictable result of showing that it wasn't different to the point of I won't bet big on it. <g> Remember Internets, B2B, Biotech, Fiber ..... Poet, thanks, I am not sure when the DOW will break but I figure probably January. CAT, IP etc are still moving up right now and fork tine projections seem to point to another couple weeks. Trying to do a time projection on my actual DOW chart is on my to do list for this weekend but I have inlaws visiting and last second shopping still left to do. Hope you have LEAP Puts. KM - Yes, I heard about Don Hays' switch to bull. It was mainly based on sentiment changes to the bearish camp on AAII. We just had a one day rally where everyone is bullish again and I expect da chief to post a rocket ship image any minute now so I can load up on puts again.<g> Keep in mind Don Hays is not a short term trader. He looks longer term and is often early. In the case of going bearish and playing it that way, he was VERY VERY early. As always, one must define their time frame for trading. Can you hold for some more minimal downside and wait for a turn back up next summer? If so, sure start buying now. I think the market will head up next summer/fall if we drop hard this spring as I suspect we will. Me, I would rather be cash or short for that drop then buy the longs at discounted prices and after I have a more clear picture of who the survivors are going to be and which ones are out of business or have lost their leadership. Hey, this could be the bottom, who knows? I do know that there are many on this thread that recognized the bottom in '97, '98 and '99 and none of them are saying this is it right now. I personally don't like those odds. Good Luck, Lee