Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (39179)	12/23/2000 12:25:08 PM
From: Yaacov	Respond to of 42787

Good post. We can only guess at what may happen next! I am sitting on some cash, and am waiting. I sold a few SUWN at 118 in Oct. and INTC at 138 during the summer. Like to get back in, but I am waiting. On Friday I bought a few INTC at 32.5, but I am not convinced! I have made my money work since early 50's and once thing I have leaned is better late than sorry! I believe if we get the right signals in Jan. then this will be one of the greatest opportunities to turn a quick profit in the past thirty years! Mr. Chambers has been closed lips but if the econmy is slowing down no CSCO? I am not sure what to think, they have not yet warned, but they have ample time to do so. Good luck Yaacov

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (39179)	12/23/2000 1:21:11 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

From First Call: MARKET EARNINGS Wow! Negative pre-announcements are like the Energizer Bunny - - They just keep going, and going, and going. We had thought they might temporarily taper off as we approached the holiday season, but many companies seem to hold no fear of being a Grinch. And if you think the last two months have been bad for 4Q00 pre-announcements, we hate to remind you that last year, 43% of the negative 4Q99 pre-announcements came after 1 January. >>> Those are last year's statistics before Reg FD. So, the breakout of pre-announcements may be considerably different this time around. The rumored early Jan meeting between Greenspan and Gov. Davis is near the early Jan minor cycle top around the 12th.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (39179)	12/23/2000 2:43:38 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Lee: (or anyone)- I've been operating under the assumption that we have needed to get back into the 1990-1998 Naz composite log chart (channel) - (we blew out upper trend line when Greenspan overeased in 1998....went into absolute bubble territory, way above the channel, with Y2K liquidity additions in fall '99)... Now, we are back to the approximate mid-range of that log channel, lower range being 1960 (on my chart), upper range around 3150....the channel "rises" about 21% a year...about in line with profits....so it makes sense to me (valuation following real earnings)... Now, in looking at individual bull leaders from 1990-2000.....the Csco's, EMC's, Dell's, etc....most of charts look irrevocably broken....as if they are going to have to map out some new bottom, channel, etc...before we know where they are really going (note: all these companies are great, just talking stock price here)... So, I am starting to wonder if the Naz log chart 1990-2000 still has validity....for, if the leaders of the Naz have broken their trendlines...what's to say the Naz log won't either (and start a new channel?)... I do see some logic in keeping the old log (channel) chart....ie, the reasons for that channel (as I identify them) are still in place.....and it makes sense to me that real earnings on the Naz will continue to grow around 21% p.a. over the next few years...again, some years higher, some lower...but 21% seems about right... So, I am torn here...any advice? (Just rereading Murphy's book, and getting comfortable with longer term trends vs. short moves...)