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To: excardog who wrote (82547)	12/23/2000 1:16:18 PM
From: Don England	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

this greenspan visits davis article didn't get any comment. i think it is just incredibly interesting. the part about 'ripple effects'... we are probably looking at the tip here where huge derivative postions begin to unwind as one default triggers another. no wonder a.g. is involved. i continue to believe that the credit mkts. here are extremely fragile; this 'local calif. problem' could be the catalyst that breaks the bank. the derivatives mkt. is absolutely opaqe. don

To: excardog who wrote (82547)	12/23/2000 2:07:38 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Exacardog, about going long CA utilities. Have you thought about putting a collar on the stocks, via buying puts & calls? I see either A) the utilities go bankrupt (unlikely as I think the federal government will bail them out with our tax $$$) in which case the shares plummet, or B) they get the bailout and shares rise. I suspect we will all have to pay for this debacle, and few if any lesson will be learned. Just a thought. Sharp

To: excardog who wrote (82547)	12/24/2000 3:49:09 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

excardog, I just read an editorial on the Latimes.com repeatedly calling us Southerners a bunch of dumb "Bible Thumpers". Let me get on my soapbox and say that I'm not sure why they are wasting time in California looking for scapegoats rather than focusing upon resolving the problems at hand. The simple truth is this: you cannot impose severe environmental/land use restrictions upon development and operation of basic industry, berate and belittle most members of these basic industries, externalize the disbenefits of these basic industries upon adjacent states, and then expect to enjoy importing unlimited amounts of free water and 3cents/kWh power for California's use from these adjacent states. It flat out does not work that way. Let me illustrate this point by discussing the North American intercontinental natural gas pipeline system and California's relationship with Canadian gas suppliers, and how it soured (no puns intended). Intercontinental Systems: OK there are two major NG pipelines that come south from Canada into or near Calfornia, the PGT line and the West Coast Switch Line. There is a major 3bcf/day east /west Canadian NG pipeline called the Transcanada Pipeline too. Next just a few weeks ago a major new Canadian Pipeline from the western NG fields of Alberta and British Columbia into Chicago just opened. It's called the Alliance Pipeline. Now for those of you who have not been trading NG stocks for the last ten years, the State of California was up to similar "schemes" back in the early 1990's with Canadian natural gas producers. At that time the pricing scenario was just the opposite for NG as it is today. NG prices were falling down through $2.00/mcf with no bottom in sight. Yet various California entities were tied into long-term NG contracts with Canadian NG producers in the $3.00/mcf range. So what happened? The same thing that is happening today. The California power producers and manufacturers ran to the California Government which then leaned hard on the Canadians to abrogate these "overpriced" NG contracts since California consumers would suffer. Well California with its political muscle succeeded in abrogating these supply contracts and leaving the Canadian NG producers "holding the bag" circa 1990 with no markets for their NG. Tough times ensued in the Canadian oil patch and a bitter taste for California and Californians was left in the Canadian NG producers' mouths. (I be that California sure wishes that it had these contracts now). Now fast forward ten years. Now suddenly in the last few weeks California has turned up with NG shortages. Nothing has really changed on the NG supply side- so what gives? "What gives" IMO is the opening of the Alliance pipeline into the Chicago Area. Canadian NG producers given the choice of NG markets in either California or the Midwest, IMO I'm guessing have chosen to cancel rights on the two West Coast Systems and move NG down the Alliance Pipeline eastward instead. That results in less NG absolutely being available for the California NG market. That also tells me subtly two more things about North American NG markets- First the status of current production in western Caanda. It tells me that there is full bore NG production already occurring and that there's no more additional NG reserves to call upon currently in the western Canadian Fields. We are at 100% NG production rates in western Canada right now. Second with this excess Canadian NG pipeline capacity currently available, it suggests to me that the builders of the Alliance Pipeline, who are no dummies, probably inked some commitments from oil & gas producers in western Cananda to move to increase NG production and fill this excess NG pipeline capacity now available. That is, exploration & drilling activities for NG in western Canada should pick up the pace now I would guess with the new Alliance pipeline capacity available.....