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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (65108)	12/23/2000 1:39:27 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

decisionpoint.com For instance, recent data shows that Hewlett-Packard bought back some 128 million of its own shares near their peak in price, and lost - are you sitting down- $3.7 billion on those shares in the stock's subsequent plunge this year. H-P had plenty of company. Among other big losers; AT&T lost $2.4 billion on the shares it bought back near their highs. Cendant lost $1.7 billion. IBM lost $3.7 billion. Microsoft lost $2.7 billion. The list is quite extensive. The total losses so far for corporate America, from its frenzy to buy its own stocks near the market's peak, exceed $200 billion. That's a significant portion of the $1.2 trillion of stock market value that has been wiped out.

To: marginmike who wrote (65108)	12/23/2000 2:04:38 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 99985

Perhaps we have experienced the greatest mania in history and perhaps it was the Japanese stock market and real estate mania in 1990. How much money has gone to "$$$ heaven"? We have the most unprecedented short positions in the history of our markets. Somebody else was making money along side of you. In some ways the money was just changing hands. I would be more concerned if everybody was doing what you are. Let's all quit working because we're rich. Who would be contributing to investments (401K, 403B's,IRA's etc) then? This correction was very necessary. We had an unsustainable bubble on our hands and there were two options. Pop it or let the air out slowly. I think the air out slowly was a much healthier way. Fewer bankruptcies. (side effect: more opportunity for agile investors to box or short outright). In my opinion, it will be up to the FED to determine where to from here. You may still be right. The FED could bungle it. We certainly need liquidity. But, I don't expect them to bungle it. And, I expect the Boomers to keep this economy afloat. Please don't feel sorry for me. As a retired LTC who is drawing a very nice retirement income while working full time in a job paying very well I don't think I warrant your pity. I have no argument with a sideways market. It will take time to fix the problems. But, I think it will be easier for a value investor like me to make money. I just couldn't stomach putting money into dot.coms with $20B market caps....

To: marginmike who wrote (65108)	12/23/2000 2:09:53 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Question posed by radio host this morning - How many manias have burst and only returned to the point of the start of the final blowoff? The host is bullish short-term.

To: marginmike who wrote (65108)	12/27/2000 8:38:02 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Take a look at the Valueline index, Dow, or even S&P 500. Not great performance - flat or down over the last couple of years. But no disaster. Only those who bought the NASDAQ stocks during a few months at the end of 99 and beginning of 2000 really lost large percentages. And how many put ALL their savings into over-priced tech stocks? 50% of US households don't own any stock at all and most of those that do have far more tied up in real estate etc. David

To: marginmike who wrote (65108)	12/27/2000 10:28:40 PM
From: Ingenious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

margin: the sky is not falling even though the nasdaq may have had a bad year. it is not the first nor the last time the markets will be turbulent. i hope you made a wad of cash and your retirement is more interesting than working; many of us actually enjoy working even though we could also retire. frankly, i would not be so quick to equate early retirement with success as many people much more wealthy than you could ever be continue to work every day (eg gates, ellison, etc.) i suppose you can make a bearish argument about the market but i think you are preaching to the choir. the fact is, we are at a relative low and the market can only go sideways for so long - eventually it will rise again and bring reward to those stock pickers with patience. stocks like qcom and broadcom have very bright futures; they are are feeding next generation devices with all the necessary components. there is no question these stocks will succeed just a matter of when. so why miss the boat?