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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: substancep who wrote (37000)	12/25/2000 8:35:30 AM
From: Seldom_Blue	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

To al who is interested in RMBS, The price of memory has dropped to its lowest in history. The 128MB SDRAM PC133 is now selling on the street for about $60. This is compared to over $200 last year. Since memory price is directly related to the future of RMBS (their royalty income), I would encourage anyone to analyze the effect of continued price depression. I will offer my take. The price is at such a low point that many manufacturers will have to start slowing production. I have seen this many times and it will probably happen again. This will drive the price up for a while until everyone starts producing again. My take is that the price will stay at a relatively low price point from here on with some fluctuations. So if one is to look at the projections for the memory market, it needs to be cut in half for SDRAM since the price drop from spring has been almost 50%. I do not think the increased consumption (because of the lower prices) will have matched the projected growth. Other types of memory such as RDRAM have not been very widely adopted yet. So in the near term RMBS will have trouble matching the most optimistic profit projections. The only thing that might save them is the addition of royalty paying licensees for this and next quarter. Disclosure: I own RMBS. I was expecting Christmas selling season to boost an otherwise lackluster second half. But the adoption of P4 is slow and PC sales is slow in general. Seldom Blue