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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rgammon who wrote (14084)	12/24/2000 12:47:35 PM
From: budweeder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Robert.........Hmmmmmmmm.....I am not the sharpest crayon in the box....let me think through your suggestion... 1. If I sold off 50% of my RYVYX stock, I would lock in losses on those shares....variable amounts of losses depending on whether I considered I was selling the higher or lower priced shares that I previously bought......what I would have though is cash to begin the AIM process again, at the present lower level. It seems to me that such a decision would depend on what "forecast" one would make for the future.... A. If the "forecast" were that the NDX would remain in a range below that required to precipitate sells under the present AIM sell levels (say NDX 2000-3000).....then such a move might make some money. B. If the "forecast" is that the NDX will recover to the 4000-5000 level by the end of, say 2001, then one would seem better off to stay with the present position. I guess the problem I have with trying to forecast involves, (a) no one can accurately forecast the market future in the short term (b) trying to do that introduces subjectivity, emotion, fear and greed, and all the things that AIM removes.....and (c) Until I sell those shares that I bought at higher prices, my loss is only paper, when I sell them, I lock those losses in... If I "absolutely knew" that the NDX was going to remain range bound at the upper level of 3000 or so for many years, I would be interested in your suggestion......since I don't "know" that, and I don't think anyone does...I think I will sit on the shares until I can sell them at LIFO gains......just my opinion....I'm not the greatest market person around. Regards, Bud

To: rgammon who wrote (14084)	12/28/2000 9:05:11 PM
From: LemonHead	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Robert, I have been thinking about this statement a lot... *Remember, we have dug ourselves into what may well turn out to be a VERY deep hole, one that takes perhaps YEARS, if ever, to get out of.* Here is my perspective. No system (not even AIM) is without it's pot holes and bump's. If you think about the retailer that sells shirts up to Christmas day for $59.95 but the day after they are on sale for $29.95. What choices do they have? Move it out at cost or a loss or let it sit in a warehouse till the next selling season is upon us. A lot of things can change in a year and people may not want to buy this product next year. So this brings us back to the premise of "Risk Management". Can we manage our risk if we do not have the ability to trade? That I believe is the question you put forth... Our warehouse or franchise is suppose to be managed just like any other business. Competition and market conditions can support us in good times and make us change drastically in lean times. For example. If I buy a train car load of wire for $100 a thousand. And after delivery the market drops to $50 a thousand. My competitors are selling it for $75 a thousand, then I must take a loss to support my customer base. So I support the idea of doing what is necessary to keep the warehouse in business!!! It is sound business over the long haul. Pipe dreams are foolish... FWIW, If you are not in a position to trade, then you need to do what ever is reasonable to get in a position to trade. Again FWIW, Keith